Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs Morgan Frost
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Frost's 1.30.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Frost had 43 in 82 games.
This week Nelson has 1 game left; Frost has 2 left. We project Frost for 2.7 ESPN points to Nelson's 2.0.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 27 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Nelson's biggest edges: Plus/minus +15, Sequence xG 59.8%, Expected goals 60.0%.
Frost's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 67.6%, Draw Equity /100 +0.083, Faceoff win % 56.8%.
Head to head on the dot, Frost leads Nelson 29–26.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 2 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.23
fantasy points per game
Morgan Frost
1.30
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brock Nelson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Frost |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.89 | 0.50 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.24 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Frost
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 5G 9A, 38 SOG · Frost 2G 0A, 31 SOG
Nelson's offensive zone 8–9 · neutral 8–8 · Nelson's defensive zone 10–12 (2021-22 to 2025-26)
Nelson blocked 3 of Frost's shots; Frost blocked 0 of Nelson's.
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
8:11 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 13–7
- 65.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.3
- 72.9%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | COL 3–1 CGY | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-03-30 | COL 9–2 CGY | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-31 | COL 2–3 CGY | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-14 | COL 4–2 CGY | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-01-30 | NYI 3–0 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-01-24 | NYI 3–1 PHI | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-01-16 | NYI 3–5 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2024-04-01 | NYI 4–3 PHI | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2023-11-25 | NYI 0–1 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-04-08 | NYI 4–0 PHI | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-02-06 | NYI 2–1 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-11-29 | NYI 1–3 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 17 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.0 pts
Morgan Frost
3games (2 left)
2.7proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs SEA
- Sat, Oct 3 @ VAN1.4 pts
- Sun, Oct 4 @ SEAB2B1.4 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Morgan Frost in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Frost's 1.30. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Frost had 43 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Morgan Frost?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 27 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Nelson and Frost done against each other?
- In 17 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 12–5. Nelson had 14 points (5 goals) and Frost had 2 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Nelson or Frost?
- Against each other, Nelson has won 26 and Frost 29 of their 55 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →