Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Nelson has 1 game left; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Hertl for 2.0 ESPN points to Nelson's 1.6.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 21 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Nelson's biggest edges: Plus/minus +15, Forecheck xG /60 0.42, On-ice PDO 1010.
Hertl's biggest edges: Ascension score 61, Hits 114, Draw Equity /100 +0.096.
Head to head on the dot, Hertl leads Nelson 35–27.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.23
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brock Nelson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.89 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 7G 5A, 43 SOG · Hertl 5G 10A, 46 SOG
Nelson's offensive zone 9–10 · neutral 2–8 · Nelson's defensive zone 16–17 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Nelson blocked 4 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 0 of Nelson's.
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
28:57 at 5-on-5 over 7 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 36–22
- 62.1%
- Expected goals
- 2.0–0.3
- 87.7%
- Goals
- 0–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 · PO | COL 1–2 VGK | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2026-05-24 · PO | COL 3–5 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2026-05-22 · PO | COL 1–3 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-05-20 · PO | COL 2–4 VGK | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2026-04-11 | COL 2–3 VGK | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-12-27 | COL 6–5 VGK | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-10-31 | COL 4–2 VGK | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-02-04 | NYI 2–1 VGK | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-01-09 | NYI 4–0 VGK | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-12-05 | NYI 4–5 SJS | 1G 0A 5S | 3G 0A 8S |
| 2023-03-18 | NYI 4–1 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-10-18 | NYI 5–2 SJS | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
Latest 12 of 17 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to C
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.6 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 6th-most FP to C
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANA
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 21 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Nelson and Hertl done against each other?
- In 17 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 9–8. Nelson had 12 points (7 goals) and Hertl had 15 (5 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Nelson or Hertl?
- Against each other, Nelson has won 27 and Hertl 35 of their 62 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →