Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

Bryan Rust vs John Carlson

Bryan RustBryan RustPenguins · Right wingvsJohn CarlsonJohn CarlsonLightning · Defence

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.

Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.

This week Rust has 1 game left; Carlson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Rust for 2.2 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.

Bryan Rust has the better number in 17 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.

Rust's biggest edges: Blocked shots 71, 20+ mph bursts 124, Shorthanded points 2.

Carlson's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 0.96, Faceoffs won 0, Expected goals 54.2%.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Bryan Rust

2.28

fantasy points per game

John Carlson

2.14

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Bryan Rust has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromRustCarlson
Goals (+2)0.810.39
Assists (+1)0.500.65
Power-play points (+0.5)0.170.10
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.010.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.250.22
Hits (+0.1)0.050.04
Blocks (+0.5)0.490.75

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head

Bryan Rust and John Carlson have no head-to-head events in our data yet (regular season and playoffs since 2019-20).

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

RustCarlson

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Bryan Rust

2games (1 left)

2.2proj. ESPN pts

  • Wed, Sep 30 @ PHI
    Opp allows 5th-most FP to RW
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 pts
    Opp allows 12th-most FP to RW

John Carlson

2games (1 left)

1.6proj. ESPN pts

  • Thu, Oct 1 @ NYR
    Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to D
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 pts
    Opp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +9.3 win%

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Bryan Rust or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Bryan Rust or John Carlson?
On 2025-26 numbers, Bryan Rust leads in 17 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →