Who to start · 2025-26
Bryan Rust vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week Rust has 1 game left; Buchnevich has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Rust for 2.2 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
Bryan Rust has the better number in 24 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Rust's biggest edges: Luck Meter +44, Top skating speed 22.8, Goals above expected +2.2.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 98, Expected goals 52.5%, Sequence xG 52.5%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Pavel Buchnevich
1.39
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Bryan Rust has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rust | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 0.49 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.49 | 0.25 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rust vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rust 11G 10A, 78 SOG · Buchnevich 7G 9A, 61 SOG
On the ice against each other (Rust's side)
7:47 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Rust's side
- Shot attempts
- 12–10
- 54.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.9–0.2
- 83.3%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rust | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | PIT 6–3 STL | 2G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-04-03 | PIT 4–5 STL | 1G 1A 3S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-13 | PIT 5–3 STL | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-02-25 | PIT 3–2 STL | 1G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-03 | PIT 6–2 STL | 1G 3A 5S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2022-03-17 | PIT 3–2 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-01-05 | PIT 5–3 STL | 2G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-04-08 | PIT 5–2 NYR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2021-04-06 | PIT 4–8 NYR | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2021-03-09 | PIT 4–2 NYR | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2021-03-07 | PIT 5–1 NYR | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2021-02-01 | PIT 1–3 NYR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 6S |
Latest 12 of 23 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to RWLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −13.4 win%Likely vs Scott Wedgewood (.921)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Bryan Rust or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Bryan Rust or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Bryan Rust leads in 24 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rust and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 23 games against each other in our data, Rust's team went 16–7. Rust had 21 points (11 goals) and Buchnevich had 16 (7 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →