Who to start · 2025-26
Bryan Rust vs Tom Wilson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tom Wilson's 2.24.
Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games.
This week Rust has 1 game left; Wilson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Wilson for 2.3 ESPN points to Rust's 2.2.
Tom Wilson has the better number in 18 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Rust's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 63.3%, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.04, Offensive-zone time 44.6%.
Wilson's biggest edges: Hits 179, Expected goals 55.1%, Sequence xG 55.1%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Tom Wilson
2.20
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Bryan Rust has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rust | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 0.83 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rust vs Wilson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rust 13G 8A, 78 SOG · Wilson 11G 13A, 58 SOG
On the ice against each other (Rust's side)
9:20 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Rust's side
- Shot attempts
- 13–10
- 56.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.7
- 55.5%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rust | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | PIT 0–3 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-11-06 | PIT 5–3 WSH | 1G 2A 5S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-04-17 | PIT 5–2 WSH | 2G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-01-18 | PIT 1–4 WSH | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 7S |
| 2024-11-08 | PIT 4–2 WSH | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2024-04-04 | PIT 4–1 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-01-02 | PIT 3–4 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2023-10-13 | PIT 4–0 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-03-25 | PIT 4–3 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2022-04-09 | PIT 3–6 WSH | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2022-02-01 | PIT 3–4 WSH | 2G 0A 9S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2021-11-14 | PIT 1–6 WSH | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 1A 2S |
Latest 12 of 30 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RW
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to RW
Tom Wilson
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ CAROpp allows 11th-most FP to RW
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.3 ptsOpp allows the most FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Bryan Rust or Tom Wilson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tom Wilson's 2.24. Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Bryan Rust or Tom Wilson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tom Wilson leads in 18 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rust and Wilson done against each other?
- In 30 games against each other in our data, Rust's team went 16–14. Rust had 21 points (13 goals) and Wilson had 24 (11 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →