Who to start · 2025-26
Dylan Larkin vs Tom Wilson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Dylan Larkin's 2.13.
Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games.
This week Larkin has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Wilson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Wilson for 2.3 ESPN points to Larkin's 2.2.
Dylan Larkin has the better number in 17 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Larkin's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 789, Net penalties drawn /60 0.00, Transition attempts /60 1.39.
Wilson's biggest edges: High-danger chances 56.3%, Scoring chances 56.3%, Forecheck xG /60 0.51.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Dylan Larkin
2.13
fantasy points per game
Tom Wilson
2.20
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Larkin | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.92 | 0.83 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.06 | 0.25 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Larkin vs Wilson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Larkin 5G 8A, 44 SOG · Wilson 6G 4A, 29 SOG
Larkin's offensive zone 2–1 · neutral 1–0 · Larkin's defensive zone 1–1 (2018-19 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Larkin's side)
25:30 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Larkin's side
- Shot attempts
- 14–34
- 29.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.6–1.6
- 27.0%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Larkin | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | DET 3–4 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-12-21 | DET 3–2 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-12-20 | DET 5–2 WSH | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2025-03-18 | DET 1–4 WSH | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-07 | DET 2–5 WSH | 1G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2024-12-29 | DET 4–2 WSH | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-04-09 | DET 1–2 WSH | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-02-27 | DET 8–3 WSH | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-02-21 | DET 3–1 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2021-12-31 | DET 1–3 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2021-11-11 | DET 0–2 WSH | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2021-10-27 | DET 3–2 WSH | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Dylan Larkin
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.2 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Tom Wilson
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ CAROpp allows 11th-most FP to RWLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.3 ptsOpp allows the most FP to RWSchedule edge −13.3 win%Likely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Dylan Larkin or Tom Wilson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Dylan Larkin's 2.13. Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Dylan Larkin or Tom Wilson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Dylan Larkin leads in 17 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Larkin and Wilson done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, Larkin's team went 7–11. Larkin had 13 points (5 goals) and Wilson had 10 (6 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Larkin or Wilson?
- Against each other, Larkin has won 4 and Wilson 2 of their 6 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →