Who to start · 2025-26
Dylan Larkin vs Mattias Samuelsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mattias Samuelsson's 2.01.
Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; Samuelsson had 41 in 78 games.
This week Larkin has 1 game left; Samuelsson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Samuelsson for 2.0 ESPN points to Larkin's 1.8.
Dylan Larkin has the better number in 17 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Larkin's biggest edges: Power-play share 66.3%, Power-play time per game 3:13, Offensive-zone time 42.7%.
Samuelsson's biggest edges: Luck Meter +88, On-ice PDO 1036, Hits 132.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Dylan Larkin
2.13
fantasy points per game
Mattias Samuelsson
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Dylan Larkin has the edge.
| Points per game from | Larkin | Samuelsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.92 | 0.33 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.00 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.99 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Larkin vs Samuelsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Larkin 8G 7A, 27 SOG · Samuelsson 2G 1A, 16 SOG
Larkin blocked 1 of Samuelsson's shots; Samuelsson blocked 2 of Larkin's.
On the ice against each other (Larkin's side)
12:24 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Larkin's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–10
- 41.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.9
- 11.7%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Larkin | Samuelsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | DET 5–2 BUF | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-11-15 | DET 4–5 BUF | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-22 | DET 2–4 BUF | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-03-12 | DET 7–3 BUF | 0G 3A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-11-02 | DET 2–1 BUF | 2G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-26 | DET 3–5 BUF | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2023-12-05 | DET 5–3 BUF | 2G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-04-06 | DET 6–7 BUF | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-29 | DET 3–6 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-30 | DET 4–5 BUF | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2022-01-17 | DET 3–2 BUF | 2G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Dylan Larkin
2games (1 left)
1.8proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 10th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG1.8 ptsLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Mattias Samuelsson
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CHI2.0 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to DLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Dylan Larkin or Mattias Samuelsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mattias Samuelsson's 2.01. Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; Samuelsson had 41 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Dylan Larkin or Mattias Samuelsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Dylan Larkin leads in 17 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Larkin and Samuelsson done against each other?
- In 11 games against each other in our data, Larkin's team went 5–6. Larkin had 15 points (8 goals) and Samuelsson had 3 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →