Who to start · 2025-26
Bryan Rust vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88.
Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Rust has 1 game left; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Rust for 2.2 ESPN points to Hertl's 2.0.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 18 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Rust's biggest edges: Goals above expected +1.5, Luck Meter +32, On-ice PDO 1019.
Hertl's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 720, Expected goals 55.2%, Scoring chances 56.7%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.82
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Bryan Rust has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rust | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 0.59 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.49 | 0.27 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rust vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rust 7G 10A, 29 SOG · Hertl 6G 3A, 30 SOG
On the ice against each other (Rust's side)
2:30 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Rust's side
- Shot attempts
- 4–3
- 57.1%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.2
- 49.0%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rust | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | PIT 2–6 VGK | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-03-01 | PIT 5–0 VGK | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-11 | PIT 3–2 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-03-07 | PIT 0–4 VGK | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-11-04 | PIT 10–2 SJS | 1G 3A 4S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2023-02-14 | PIT 3–1 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-01-28 | PIT 4–6 SJS | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-01-02 | PIT 8–5 SJS | 3G 2A 5S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2020-01-02 | PIT 2–3 SJS | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2019-02-21 | PIT 0–4 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 2G 0A 2S |
| 2019-01-15 | PIT 2–5 SJS | 0G 1A 1S | 3G 0A 3S |
| 2018-01-30 | PIT 5–2 SJS | 2G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 6S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to RWvs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Bryan Rust or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88. Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Bryan Rust or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 18 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rust and Hertl done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Rust's team went 6–6. Rust had 17 points (7 goals) and Hertl had 9 (6 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →