Who to start · 2025-26
Clayton Keller vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Clayton Keller projects to 2.15 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Keller had 88 points in 82 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Keller has 2 games left with 1 tough matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Keller for 3.1 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Clayton Keller has the better number in 28 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Keller's biggest edges: Plus/minus +21, Fenwick 56.5%, Corsi 56.4%.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.64, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004, Hits 48.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 2 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Clayton Keller
2.15
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Clayton Keller has the edge.
| Points per game from | Keller | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.83 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Keller vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Keller 6G 15A, 51 SOG · Toffoli 6G 11A, 88 SOG
On the ice against each other (Keller's side)
8:11 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Keller's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–5
- 61.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.0
- 99.6%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Keller | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | UTA 3–6 SJS | 0G 1A 4S | 2G 2A 5S |
| 2025-11-18 | UTA 2–3 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-10-17 | UTA 6–3 SJS | 1G 3A 3S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2025-01-10 | UTA 2–1 SJS | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-12-14 | UTA 4–3 SJS | 1G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-10-28 | UTA 4–5 SJS | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 1A 8S |
| 2023-10-13 | ARI 4–3 NJD | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2023-03-14 | ARI 4–3 CGY | 2G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-02-22 | ARI 3–6 CGY | 1G 1A 0S | 1G 1A 6S |
| 2022-12-05 | ARI 2–3 CGY | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2022-03-25 | ARI 2–4 CGY | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2020-03-04 | ARI 4–2 VAN | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 5S |
Latest 12 of 23 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Clayton Keller
3games (2 left)
3.1proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs CHIOpp allows 4th-most FP to RWLikely vs Arvid Soderblom (.880)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ CBJ1.4 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge −1.0 win%Likely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ NYRB2B1.7 ptsOpp allows 13th-most FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Clayton Keller or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Clayton Keller projects to 2.15 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Keller had 88 points in 82 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Clayton Keller or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Clayton Keller leads in 28 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Keller and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 23 games against each other in our data, Keller's team went 12–11. Keller had 21 points (6 goals) and Toffoli had 17 (6 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →