Who to start · 2025-26
Connor Bedard vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor Bedard projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88.
Bedard had 75 points in 69 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Bedard has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Bedard for 2.4 ESPN points to Hertl's 2.0.
Connor Bedard has the better number in 19 of the 35 stats both are ranked on.
Bedard's biggest edges: Luck Meter +36, On-ice PDO 1008, 20+ mph bursts 195.
Hertl's biggest edges: High-danger chances 59.2%, Scoring chances 56.7%, Fenwick 55.5%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor Bedard
2.24
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.82
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor Bedard has the edge.
| Points per game from | Bedard | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.87 | 0.59 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.65 | 0.41 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Bedard vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Bedard 1G 2A, 13 SOG · Hertl 3G 3A, 10 SOG
Bedard's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 1–3 · Bedard's defensive zone 0–3 (2024-25 to 2025-26)
Bedard blocked 0 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 2 of Bedard's.
On the ice against each other (Bedard's side)
6:10 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Bedard's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–6
- 57.1%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.2
- 46.3%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Bedard | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | CHI 0–4 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-12-02 | CHI 3–4 VGK | 1G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-02-27 | CHI 5–7 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-01-18 | CHI 5–3 VGK | 0G 1A 3S | 2G 1A 2S |
| 2024-04-16 | CHI 1–3 VGK | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor Bedard
3games (1 left)
2.4proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ UTAOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ BUF2.4 ptsOpp allows 5th-most FP to CSchedule edge −1.0 win%vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.910)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor Bedard or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor Bedard projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88. Bedard had 75 points in 69 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor Bedard or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor Bedard leads in 19 of 35 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Bedard and Hertl done against each other?
- In 5 games against each other in our data, Bedard's team went 1–4. Bedard had 3 points (1 goals) and Hertl had 6 (3 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Bedard or Hertl?
- Against each other, Bedard has won 2 and Hertl 6 of their 8 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →