Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week McDavid has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Carlson has 1 left. We project McDavid for 2.3 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.9.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 25 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Net penalties drawn /60 +1.05, 20+ mph bursts 681, Penalty minutes 44.
Carlson's biggest edges: Hardest shot 99.8, Goals above expected +1.7, Luck Meter +33.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 6 A, 2 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
3.45
fantasy points per game
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor McDavid has the edge.
| Points per game from | McDavid | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.15 | 0.37 |
| Assists (+1) | 1.32 | 0.61 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.35 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.76 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 11G 23A, 66 SOG · Carlson 0G 21A, 48 SOG
McDavid blocked 3 of Carlson's shots; Carlson blocked 1 of McDavid's.
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
60:36 at 5-on-5 over 9 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 65–50
- 56.5%
- Expected goals
- 4.2–2.8
- 60.2%
- Goals
- 4–4
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 · PO | EDM 2–5 ANA | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2026-04-28 · PO | EDM 4–1 ANA | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2026-04-26 · PO | EDM 3–4 ANA | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2026-04-24 · PO | EDM 4–7 ANA | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2026-04-22 · PO | EDM 4–6 ANA | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-04-20 · PO | EDM 4–3 ANA | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2026-03-28 | EDM 4–2 ANA | 1G 2A 6S | 0G 2A 4S |
| 2026-01-24 | EDM 6–5 WSH | 2G 3A 9S | 0G 2A 0S |
| 2025-11-19 | EDM 4–7 WSH | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 3A 3S |
| 2025-02-23 | EDM 3–7 WSH | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2024-03-13 | EDM 7–2 WSH | 1G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-11-24 | EDM 5–0 WSH | 0G 4A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 20 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor McDavid
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs VANOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ VANOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA2.3 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.9proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.9 ptsSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 25 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Carlson done against each other?
- In 20 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 10–10. McDavid had 34 points (11 goals) and Carlson had 21 (0 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →