Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Ryan O'Reilly
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ryan O'Reilly's 1.90.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games.
This week McDavid has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; O'Reilly has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project McDavid for 2.3 ESPN points to O'Reilly's 2.0.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 26 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 2.12, Top skating speed 24.6, Ascension score 62.
O'Reilly's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.007, Blocked shots 66, On-ice PDO 1023.
Head to head on the dot, O'Reilly leads McDavid 91–53.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 6 A, 2 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
3.45
fantasy points per game
Ryan O'Reilly
1.90
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor McDavid has the edge.
| Points per game from | McDavid | O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.15 | 0.58 |
| Assists (+1) | 1.32 | 0.57 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.35 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs O'Reilly
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 14G 17A, 92 SOG · O'Reilly 7G 8A, 54 SOG
McDavid's offensive zone 16–28 · neutral 23–38 · McDavid's defensive zone 14–25 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
27:45 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 31–26
- 54.4%
- Expected goals
- 1.7–1.5
- 54.0%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | EDM 3–1 NSH | 0G 3A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-01-13 | EDM 3–4 NSH | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2026-01-06 | EDM 6–2 NSH | 3G 0A 10S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-11-14 | EDM 3–2 NSH | 1G 1A 8S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-10-17 | EDM 4–2 NSH | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-01-27 | EDM 4–1 NSH | 1G 3A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-11-04 | EDM 2–5 NSH | 0G 1A 3S | 3G 1A 3S |
| 2023-10-17 | EDM 6–1 NSH | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2023-03-01 | EDM 5–2 TOR | 2G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-15 | EDM 3–4 STL | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-10-26 | EDM 3–1 STL | 0G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2022-10-22 | EDM 0–2 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 23 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor McDavid
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA2.3 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
Ryan O'Reilly
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs MINOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs DAL2.0 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to CSchedule edge +13.0 win%Likely vs Casey DeSmith (.907)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Ryan O'Reilly in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ryan O'Reilly's 1.90. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Ryan O'Reilly?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 26 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and O'Reilly done against each other?
- In 23 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 12–11. McDavid had 31 points (14 goals) and O'Reilly had 15 (7 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or O'Reilly?
- Against each other, McDavid has won 53 and O'Reilly 91 of their 144 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →