Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week McDavid has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project McDavid for 2.3 ESPN points to Hertl's 2.0.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 24 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Plus/minus +17, Top skating speed 24.6, Forecheck xG /60 0.36.
Hertl's biggest edges: Hardest shot 89.5, Hits 114, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.010.
Head to head on the dot, Hertl leads McDavid 54–40.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 6 A, 2 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
3.45
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor McDavid has the edge.
| Points per game from | McDavid | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.15 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 1.32 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 14G 31A, 107 SOG · Hertl 12G 13A, 82 SOG
McDavid's offensive zone 18–20 · neutral 12–16 · McDavid's defensive zone 10–18 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
McDavid blocked 0 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 2 of McDavid's.
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
8:09 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–12
- 40.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.6–1.3
- 31.8%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | EDM 1–5 VGK | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-03-26 | EDM 4–3 VGK | 1G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2026-03-08 | EDM 4–2 VGK | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-12-21 | EDM 4–3 VGK | 1G 2A 5S | 1G 2A 5S |
| 2025-05-14 · PO | EDM 1–0 VGK | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-05-12 · PO | EDM 3–0 VGK | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-05-10 · PO | EDM 3–4 VGK | 1G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2025-05-08 · PO | EDM 5–4 VGK | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-05-06 · PO | EDM 4–2 VGK | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-14 | EDM 6–3 VGK | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-12-03 | EDM 0–1 VGK | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-11-06 | EDM 2–4 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 33 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor McDavid
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA2.3 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 24 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Hertl done against each other?
- In 33 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 20–13. McDavid had 45 points (14 goals) and Hertl had 25 (12 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Hertl?
- Against each other, McDavid has won 40 and Hertl 54 of their 94 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →