Who to start · 2025-26
Jack Hughes vs Leo Carlsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jack Hughes projects to 2.55 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.12.
Hughes had 77 points in 61 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games.
This week Hughes has 1 game left; Carlsson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Hughes for 2.3 ESPN points to Carlsson's 1.6.
Leo Carlsson has the better number in 19 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Hughes's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.33, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.016, Transition attempts /60 1.60.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Penalty minutes 33, Goals above expected +1.4, Ascension score 59.
Head to head on the dot, Hughes leads Carlsson 6–4.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Jack Hughes
2.55
fantasy points per game
Leo Carlsson
2.12
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Jack Hughes has the edge.
| Points per game from | Hughes | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.95 | 0.90 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.77 | 0.57 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Hughes vs Carlsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2024-25 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Hughes 2G 0A, 11 SOG · Carlsson 0G 1A, 2 SOG
Hughes's offensive zone 2–1 · neutral 2–3 · Hughes's defensive zone 2–0 (2024-25 to 2025-26)
Hughes blocked 0 of Carlsson's shots; Carlsson blocked 1 of Hughes's.
On the ice against each other (Hughes's side)
7:19 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Hughes's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–10
- 44.4%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.6
- 12.5%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Hughes | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | NJD 1–4 ANA | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-12-31 | NJD 2–3 ANA | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-27 | NJD 6–2 ANA | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Jack Hughes
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs PHIOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ NYI2.3 ptsOpp allows 15th-most FP to CSchedule edge −4.0 win%vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Jack Hughes or Leo Carlsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jack Hughes projects to 2.55 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.12. Hughes had 77 points in 61 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jack Hughes or Leo Carlsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Leo Carlsson leads in 19 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Hughes and Carlsson done against each other?
- In 3 games against each other in our data, Hughes's team went 1–2. Hughes had 2 points (2 goals) and Carlsson had 1 (0 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Hughes or Carlsson?
- Against each other, Hughes has won 6 and Carlsson 4 of their 10 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →