Who to start · 2025-26
Jake Guentzel vs Leo Carlsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.21 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.12.
Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games.
This week Guentzel has 1 game left; Carlsson has 1 left. We project Carlsson for 2.1 ESPN points to Guentzel's 1.9.
Jake Guentzel has the better number in 23 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Guentzel's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1023, Forecheck xG /60 0.32, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.005.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Net penalties drawn /60 +0.29, 20+ mph bursts 197, Fenwick 56.3%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Jake Guentzel
2.21
fantasy points per game
Leo Carlsson
2.12
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Jake Guentzel has the edge.
| Points per game from | Guentzel | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.88 | 0.90 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Guentzel vs Carlsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Guentzel 4G 1A, 15 SOG · Carlsson 1G 2A, 10 SOG
Guentzel's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 0–0 · Guentzel's defensive zone 0–0 (2024-25)
On the ice against each other (Guentzel's side)
11:46 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Guentzel's side
- Shot attempts
- 14–15
- 48.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.8
- 37.2%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Guentzel | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | TBL 4–3 ANA | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-10-25 | TBL 4–3 ANA | 2G 0A 6S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-01-16 | TBL 4–3 ANA | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-01-05 | TBL 1–4 ANA | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2023-11-07 | PIT 2–0 ANA | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-10-30 | PIT 3–4 ANA | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Jake Guentzel
2games (1 left)
1.9proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYR
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.9 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
2.1proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGK
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA2.1 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Jake Guentzel or Leo Carlsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.21 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.12. Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jake Guentzel or Leo Carlsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Jake Guentzel leads in 23 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Guentzel and Carlsson done against each other?
- In 6 games against each other in our data, Guentzel's team went 4–2. Guentzel had 5 points (4 goals) and Carlsson had 3 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Guentzel or Carlsson?
- Against each other, Guentzel has won 1 and Carlsson 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →