Who to start · 2025-26
Jake Guentzel vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.21 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week Guentzel has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Cates has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Guentzel for 1.5 ESPN points to Cates's 1.5.
Jake Guentzel has the better number in 29 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Guentzel's biggest edges: Ascension score 53, Corsi 53.3%, 20+ mph bursts 99.
Cates's biggest edges: Hits 102, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, Faceoffs won 467.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Jake Guentzel
2.21
fantasy points per game
Noah Cates
1.33
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Jake Guentzel has the edge.
| Points per game from | Guentzel | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.88 | 0.39 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.58 | 0.31 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Guentzel vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Guentzel 3G 4A, 23 SOG · Cates 2G 1A, 15 SOG
Guentzel's offensive zone 6–2 · neutral 0–0 · Guentzel's defensive zone 0–0 (2024-25)
Guentzel blocked 1 of Cates's shots; Cates blocked 0 of Guentzel's.
On the ice against each other (Guentzel's side)
8:17 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Guentzel's side
- Shot attempts
- 4–6
- 40.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.3
- 32.5%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Guentzel | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | TBL 5–1 PHI | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-01-10 | TBL 7–2 PHI | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-11-24 | TBL 3–0 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-03-17 | TBL 2–0 PHI | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-03-13 | TBL 3–4 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-11-07 | TBL 1–2 PHI | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-03-21 | CAR 3–2 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-04-02 | PIT 4–2 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-03-11 | PIT 5–1 PHI | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-25 | PIT 4–1 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-04-24 | PIT 1–4 PHI | 0G 1A 3S | 2G 1A 6S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Jake Guentzel
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PITOpp allows the fewest FP to LWLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to LWSchedule edge +9.0 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Jake Guentzel or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.21 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jake Guentzel or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Jake Guentzel leads in 29 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Guentzel and Cates done against each other?
- In 11 games against each other in our data, Guentzel's team went 8–3. Guentzel had 7 points (3 goals) and Cates had 3 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Guentzel or Cates?
- Against each other, Guentzel has won 6 and Cates 2 of their 8 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →