Who to start · 2025-26
Jake Guentzel vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Guentzel has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Guentzel for 1.5 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Jake Guentzel has the better number in 28 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Guentzel's biggest edges: Penalty minutes 61, Plus/minus +13, Ascension score 53.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Hardest shot 89.2, Transition attempts /60 1.64, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.05.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Jake Guentzel
2.20
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Jake Guentzel has the edge.
| Points per game from | Guentzel | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.88 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.58 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Guentzel vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Guentzel 5G 11A, 36 SOG · Toffoli 5G 3A, 30 SOG
On the ice against each other (Guentzel's side)
8:14 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Guentzel's side
- Shot attempts
- 12–7
- 63.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.1
- 76.1%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Guentzel | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | TBL 4–1 SJS | 1G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2026-01-03 | TBL 7–3 SJS | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-01-02 | TBL 1–2 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2024-12-05 | TBL 8–1 SJS | 1G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-11-16 | PIT 2–5 NJD | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2022-11-23 | PIT 2–1 CGY | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-11-27 | PIT 3–6 MTL | 0G 1A 9S | 1G 2A 2S |
| 2021-11-18 | PIT 6–0 MTL | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-12-14 | PIT 5–4 LAK | 0G 3A 1S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2019-01-12 | PIT 2–5 LAK | 2G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2018-12-15 | PIT 4–3 LAK | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2018-02-15 | PIT 3–1 LAK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Jake Guentzel
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Jake Guentzel or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jake Guentzel or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Jake Guentzel leads in 28 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Guentzel and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, Guentzel's team went 9–4. Guentzel had 16 points (5 goals) and Toffoli had 8 (5 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →