Who to start · 2025-26
Jake McCabe vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Jake McCabe's 1.75.
McCabe had 25 points in 80 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week McCabe has 1 game left; Carlson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project McCabe for 1.7 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
John Carlson has the better number in 26 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
McCabe's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.040, Hits 104, Penalty minutes 64.
Carlson's biggest edges: Corsi 54.5%, Fenwick 54.3%, Offensive-zone time 43.4%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 2 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Jake McCabe
1.75
fantasy points per game
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | McCabe | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.11 | 0.37 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.22 | 0.61 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 1.19 | 0.76 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: McCabe vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McCabe 2G 3A, 24 SOG · Carlson 3G 9A, 58 SOG
McCabe blocked 4 of Carlson's shots; Carlson blocked 1 of McCabe's.
On the ice against each other (McCabe's side)
17:39 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from McCabe's side
- Shot attempts
- 16–20
- 44.4%
- Expected goals
- 1.1–1.0
- 52.0%
- Goals
- 0–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McCabe | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | TOR 5–4 ANA | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2025-12-18 | TOR 0–4 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 2A 2S |
| 2025-11-28 | TOR 2–4 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-12-28 | TOR 2–5 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-11-13 | TOR 4–3 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-03-28 | TOR 5–1 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-03-20 | TOR 7–3 WSH | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2023-10-24 | TOR 4–1 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-12-13 | CHI 3–7 WSH | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2021-12-15 | CHI 5–4 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2021-12-02 | CHI 4–3 WSH | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2021-02-18 | BUF 1–3 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 21 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Jake McCabe
3games (1 left)
1.7proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 16th-most FP to DSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.7 ptsvs Linus Ullmark (.891)
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Jake McCabe or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Jake McCabe's 1.75. McCabe had 25 points in 80 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jake McCabe or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 26 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McCabe and Carlson done against each other?
- In 21 games against each other in our data, McCabe's team went 11–10. McCabe had 5 points (2 goals) and Carlson had 12 (3 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →