Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Kyle Connor
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Kyle Connor projects to 2.43 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Connor had 92 in 82 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left; Connor has 2 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Connor for 3.6 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.9.
They split the 33 stats both are ranked on 16–16.
Carlson's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 0, Transition attempts /60 0.96, High-danger chances 54.5%.
Connor's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.028, 20+ mph bursts 162, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.31.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Kyle Connor
2.43
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Kyle Connor has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Connor |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 1.02 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 0.17 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Connor
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 3G 6A, 37 SOG · Connor 4G 9A, 47 SOG
Carlson blocked 4 of Connor's shots; Connor blocked 0 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
12:03 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 12–11
- 52.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.9
- 30.9%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Connor |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | WSH 1–5 WPG | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 2A 3S |
| 2025-11-26 | WSH 4–3 WPG | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 3A 2S |
| 2025-03-25 | WSH 2–3 WPG | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-02-01 | WSH 4–5 WPG | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-03-24 | WSH 3–0 WPG | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 8S |
| 2024-03-11 | WSH 0–3 WPG | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2022-12-23 | WSH 4–1 WPG | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-11 | WSH 5–2 WPG | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2021-12-17 | WSH 5–2 WPG | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2020-02-27 | WSH 0–3 WPG | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2020-02-25 | WSH 4–3 WPG | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2019-03-10 | WSH 3–1 WPG | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 15 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.9proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.9 ptsSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Kyle Connor
2games
3.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs BOS1.6 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to LW
- Sun, Oct 4 @ DET2.0 ptsSchedule edge −2.9 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Kyle Connor in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Kyle Connor projects to 2.43 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Connor had 92 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Kyle Connor?
- On 2025-26 numbers they split 16–16 across 33 stats where both qualify.
- How have Carlson and Connor done against each other?
- In 15 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 8–7. Carlson had 9 points (3 goals) and Connor had 13 (4 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →