Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Matthew Schaefer
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matthew Schaefer's 2.02.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Schaefer had 59 in 82 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Schaefer has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Schaefer for 2.4 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
Matthew Schaefer has the better number in 18 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.32, High-danger chances 54.5%, Corsi 54.5%.
Schaefer's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.058, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.59, 20+ mph bursts 269.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Matthew Schaefer
2.02
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Schaefer |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 0.53 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.41 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 0.67 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Schaefer
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2025-26 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 1G 1A, 6 SOG · Schaefer 1G 1A, 12 SOG
Carlson blocked 2 of Schaefer's shots; Schaefer blocked 1 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
22:21 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 20–29
- 40.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.6–1.1
- 33.9%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Schaefer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | WSH 4–1 NYI | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-11-30 | WSH 4–1 NYI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-10-31 | WSH 1–3 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-10-11 | WSH 4–2 NYI | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 8S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Matthew Schaefer
2games (1 left)
2.4proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ TOROpp allows 14th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Anthony Stolarz (.893)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs NJD2.4 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to DSchedule edge +4.1 win%vs Nico Daws (.908)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Matthew Schaefer in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matthew Schaefer's 2.02. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Schaefer had 59 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Matthew Schaefer?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Matthew Schaefer leads in 18 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and Schaefer done against each other?
- In 4 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 3–1. Carlson had 2 points (1 goals) and Schaefer had 2 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →