Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Noah Dobson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Noah Dobson projects to 2.17 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Dobson had 47 in 80 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left; Dobson has 1 left. We project Dobson for 2.2 ESPN points to Carlson's 2.1.
John Carlson has the better number in 23 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: High-danger chances 54.5%, Corsi 54.5%, Scoring chances 53.1%.
Dobson's biggest edges: Hits 62, Net penalties drawn /60 −0.03, 20+ mph bursts 65.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Noah Dobson
2.17
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Noah Dobson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Dobson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.41 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 1.16 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Dobson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2019-20 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 5G 11A, 58 SOG · Dobson 3G 10A, 37 SOG
Carlson blocked 2 of Dobson's shots; Dobson blocked 2 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
25:28 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 31–27
- 53.4%
- Expected goals
- 1.3–1.0
- 55.9%
- Goals
- 3–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Dobson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | ANA 4–3 MTL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2026-01-13 | WSH 3–2 MTL | 0G 0A 7S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-11-20 | WSH 8–4 MTL | 0G 2A 0S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-04-06 | WSH 1–4 NYI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-11-29 | WSH 5–4 NYI | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2023-12-29 | WSH 1–5 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2023-12-20 | WSH 3–2 NYI | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-11-11 | WSH 4–1 NYI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2023-11-02 | WSH 0–3 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-04-10 | WSH 5–2 NYI | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-03-29 | WSH 1–2 NYI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-04-26 | WSH 1–4 NYI | 0G 0A 6S | 1G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 23 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
2.1proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYR
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH2.1 pts
Noah Dobson
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Tue, Sep 29 @ TOR
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PIT2.2 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Noah Dobson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Noah Dobson projects to 2.17 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Dobson had 47 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Noah Dobson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 23 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and Dobson done against each other?
- In 23 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 14–9. Carlson had 16 points (5 goals) and Dobson had 13 (3 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →