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Who to start · 2025-26

John Carlson vs Pavel Dorofeyev

John CarlsonJohn CarlsonLightning · DefencevsPavel DorofeyevPavel DorofeyevRangers · Right wing

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Dorofeyev's 1.90.

Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Dorofeyev had 64 in 82 games.

This week Carlson has 1 game left; Dorofeyev has 1 left. We project Carlson for 1.9 ESPN points to Dorofeyev's 1.7.

Pavel Dorofeyev has the better number in 19 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Carlson's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 0, Forecheck xG /60 0.32, Plus/minus +9.

Dorofeyev's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.034, Offensive-zone time 47.1%, High-danger chances 59.2%.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 12 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

John Carlson

2.10

fantasy points per game

Pavel Dorofeyev

1.90

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromCarlsonDorofeyev
Goals (+2)0.370.86
Assists (+1)0.610.33
Power-play points (+0.5)0.090.18
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.230.30
Hits (+0.1)0.040.03
Blocks (+0.5)0.760.20

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Carlson vs Dorofeyev

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

CarlsonDorofeyev
5Team record in 10 meetings5
4Points in those games9

Carlson 0G 4A, 25 SOG · Dorofeyev 6G 3A, 27 SOG

1Hits on each other0

On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)

33:44 at 5-on-5 over 7 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Carlson's side

Shot attempts
30–31
49.2%
Expected goals
1.1–2.0
36.3%
Goals
0–3

Games against each other

Games between John Carlson and Pavel Dorofeyev
DateScoreCarlsonDorofeyev
2026-10-01TBL 1–5 NYR0G 0A 4S1G 1A 5S
2026-05-14 · POANA 1–5 VGK0G 0A 3S2G 0A 3S
2026-05-12 · POANA 2–3 VGK0G 0A 3S2G 0A 4S
2026-05-10 · POANA 4–3 VGK0G 0A 1S1G 0A 4S
2026-05-08 · POANA 2–6 VGK0G 0A 3S0G 1A 1S
2026-05-06 · POANA 3–1 VGK0G 0A 2S0G 0A 1S
2026-05-04 · POANA 1–3 VGK0G 1A 2S0G 1A 1S
2024-11-17WSH 5–2 VGK0G 1A 5S0G 0A 5S
2024-10-15WSH 4–2 VGK0G 1A 0S0G 0A 2S
2023-11-14WSH 3–0 VGK0G 1A 2S0G 0A 1S

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

CarlsonDorofeyev

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

John Carlson

2games (1 left)

1.9proj. ESPN pts

  • Thu, Oct 1 @ NYR
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.9 pts
    Schedule edge +9.3 win%

Pavel Dorofeyev

4games (1 left)

1.7proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 @ BOS
  • Thu, Oct 1 vs TBL
  • Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2B
    Schedule edge −9.3 win%
  • Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.7 pts
    Schedule edge +9.3 win%

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start John Carlson or Pavel Dorofeyev in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Dorofeyev's 1.90. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Dorofeyev had 64 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, John Carlson or Pavel Dorofeyev?
On 2025-26 numbers, Pavel Dorofeyev leads in 19 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Carlson and Dorofeyev done against each other?
In 10 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 5–5. Carlson had 4 points (0 goals) and Dorofeyev had 9 (6 goals).

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →