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Who to start · 2025-26

John Carlson vs Trevor Zegras

John CarlsonJohn CarlsonLightning · DefencevsTrevor ZegrasTrevor ZegrasFlyers · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Trevor Zegras's 1.53.

Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Zegras had 67 in 81 games.

This week Carlson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Zegras has 1 left. We project Carlson for 1.6 ESPN points to Zegras's 1.2.

Trevor Zegras has the better number in 18 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Carlson's biggest edges: Hardest shot 99.8, Ascension score 53, Top skating speed 22.5.

Zegras's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.036, Penalty minutes 62, Hits 46.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 2 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

John Carlson

2.10

fantasy points per game

Trevor Zegras

1.53

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromCarlsonZegras
Goals (+2)0.370.57
Assists (+1)0.610.45
Power-play points (+0.5)0.090.13
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.230.19
Hits (+0.1)0.040.05
Blocks (+0.5)0.760.15

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Carlson vs Zegras

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

CarlsonZegras
2Team record in 5 meetings3
4Points in those games6

Carlson 1G 3A, 18 SOG · Zegras 2G 4A, 11 SOG

0Hits on each other1

On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)

6:30 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side

Shot attempts
5–8
38.5%
Expected goals
0.1–0.4
22.2%
Goals
0–1

Games against each other

Games between John Carlson and Trevor Zegras
DateScoreCarlsonZegras
2026-03-18ANA 2–3 PHI0G 0A 3S0G 0A 1S
2026-02-03WSH 2–4 PHI0G 0A 5S0G 1A 3S
2025-03-11WSH 7–4 ANA0G 1A 2S0G 1A 1S
2021-12-06WSH 4–3 ANA1G 0A 5S0G 2A 3S
2021-11-16WSH 2–3 ANA0G 2A 3S2G 0A 3S

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

CarlsonZegras

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

John Carlson

2games (1 left)

1.6proj. ESPN pts

  • Thu, Oct 1 @ NYR
    Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 pts
    Opp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)

Trevor Zegras

3games (1 left)

1.2proj. ESPN pts

  • Wed, Sep 30 vs PIT
    Opp allows the fewest FP to CLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
  • Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2B
    Opp allows 8th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.2 pts
    Opp allows 13th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.0 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start John Carlson or Trevor Zegras in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Trevor Zegras's 1.53. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Zegras had 67 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, John Carlson or Trevor Zegras?
On 2025-26 numbers, Trevor Zegras leads in 18 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Carlson and Zegras done against each other?
In 5 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 2–3. Carlson had 4 points (1 goals) and Zegras had 6 (2 goals).

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →