Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Carlson for 1.6 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
John Carlson has the better number in 20 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 0, Top skating speed 22.5, Ascension score 53.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004, Hits 48, Offensive-zone time 45.2%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 10G 10A, 47 SOG · Toffoli 5G 9A, 44 SOG
Carlson blocked 1 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 0 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
14:29 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 13–11
- 54.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.7–0.3
- 66.3%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | ANA 6–1 SJS | 3G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2026-04-01 | ANA 3–4 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-01-15 | WSH 2–3 SJS | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-03-15 | WSH 5–1 SJS | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-12-03 | WSH 1–2 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-03-24 | WSH 3–0 WPG | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-03-11 | WSH 0–3 WPG | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-02-20 | WSH 6–2 NJD | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 6S |
| 2024-01-03 | WSH 3–6 NJD | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-11-10 | WSH 4–2 NJD | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2023-10-25 | WSH 6–4 NJD | 0G 1A 3S | 2G 1A 2S |
| 2022-12-03 | WSH 2–5 CGY | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 0S |
Latest 12 of 22 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 20 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 22 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 14–8. Carlson had 20 points (10 goals) and Toffoli had 14 (5 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →