Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Will Smith
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Will Smith's 1.94.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Smith had 59 in 69 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left; Smith has 1 left. We project Carlson for 1.9 ESPN points to Smith's 1.6.
John Carlson has the better number in 19 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: High-danger chances 54.5%, Blocked shots 106, Faceoffs won 0.
Smith's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.039, Ascension score 64, On-ice PDO 1033.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Will Smith
1.94
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 0.90 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 0.08 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Smith
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2024-25 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 3G 1A, 7 SOG · Smith 1G 2A, 8 SOG
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
9:54 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–5
- 61.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.4
- 21.5%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Smith |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | ANA 6–1 SJS | 3G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-04-01 | ANA 3–4 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 2A 2S |
| 2025-03-15 | WSH 5–1 SJS | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2024-12-03 | WSH 1–2 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.9proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYR
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.9 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Will Smith
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLA
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.6 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Will Smith in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Will Smith's 1.94. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Smith had 59 in 69 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Will Smith?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 19 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and Smith done against each other?
- In 4 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 2–2. Carlson had 4 points (3 goals) and Smith had 3 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →