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Who to start · 2025-26

John Tavares vs Tomas Hertl

John TavaresJohn TavaresMaple Leafs · CentrevsTomas HertlTomas HertlGolden Knights · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Tavares's 1.80.

Tavares had 71 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.

This week Tavares has 1 game left; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Hertl for 2.0 ESPN points to Tavares's 1.7.

Tomas Hertl has the better number in 21 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.

Tavares's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.34, Luck Meter +12, On-ice PDO 992.

Hertl's biggest edges: Scoring chances 56.7%, High-danger chances 59.2%, Ascension score 61.

Head to head on the dot, Tavares leads Hertl 40–36.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

John Tavares

1.80

fantasy points per game

Tomas Hertl

1.88

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Tomas Hertl has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromTavaresHertl
Goals (+2)0.670.63
Assists (+1)0.490.37
Power-play points (+0.5)0.110.17
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.240.27
Hits (+0.1)0.090.14
Blocks (+0.5)0.220.30

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Tavares vs Hertl

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

TavaresHertl
8Team record in 13 meetings5
16Points in those games5

Tavares 7G 9A, 31 SOG · Hertl 3G 2A, 25 SOG

40Faceoffs against each other36

Tavares's offensive zone 17–8 · neutral 13–14 · Tavares's defensive zone 10–14 (2017-18 to 2025-26)

1Hits on each other1

On the ice against each other (Tavares's side)

10:23 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Tavares's side

Shot attempts
14–10
58.3%
Expected goals
1.0–0.4
72.1%
Goals
3–1

Games against each other

Games between John Tavares and Tomas Hertl
DateScoreTavaresHertl
2026-01-23TOR 3–6 VGK1G 0A 3S0G 0A 2S
2026-01-15TOR 5–6 VGK1G 1A 1S1G 1A 2S
2025-03-05TOR 2–5 VGK0G 1A 1S1G 1A 1S
2024-11-20TOR 3–0 VGK0G 2A 2S0G 0A 2S
2024-01-09TOR 7–1 SJS0G 0A 1S0G 0A 3S
2024-01-06TOR 4–1 SJS0G 1A 0S0G 0A 1S
2022-11-30TOR 3–1 SJS0G 0A 5S0G 0A 2S
2022-10-27TOR 3–4 SJS0G 1A 3S0G 0A 1S
2021-11-26TOR 4–1 SJS1G 1A 2S0G 0A 0S
2021-10-22TOR 3–5 SJS1G 0A 4S0G 0A 2S
2018-11-28TOR 5–3 SJS2G 0A 6S1G 0A 4S
2017-10-21NYI 5–3 SJS1G 2A 2S0G 0A 4S

Latest 12 of 13 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

TavaresHertl

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

John Tavares

3games (1 left)

1.7proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs MTL
    Opp allows 14th-most FP to C
  • Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2B
    Opp allows 15th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.7 pts

Tomas Hertl

3games (1 left)

2.0proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs CHI
    Opp allows 8th-most FP to C
  • Fri, Oct 2 vs ANA
    Opp allows 9th-most FP to C
  • Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 pts
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start John Tavares or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Tavares's 1.80. Tavares had 71 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, John Tavares or Tomas Hertl?
On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 21 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Tavares and Hertl done against each other?
In 13 games against each other in our data, Tavares's team went 8–5. Tavares had 16 points (7 goals) and Hertl had 5 (3 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Tavares or Hertl?
Against each other, Tavares has won 40 and Hertl 36 of their 76 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →