Who to start · 2025-26
Kirill Marchenko vs Tom Wilson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Kirill Marchenko's 1.92.
Marchenko had 67 points in 76 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games.
This week Marchenko has 1 game left; Wilson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Wilson for 2.3 ESPN points to Marchenko's 1.8.
Tom Wilson has the better number in 18 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Marchenko's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 73.4%, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.08, Ascension score 58.
Wilson's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.51, Hits 179, Goals above expected +2.0.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 7 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Kirill Marchenko
1.92
fantasy points per game
Tom Wilson
2.24
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Marchenko | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Marchenko vs Wilson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Marchenko 0G 2A, 36 SOG · Wilson 2G 5A, 27 SOG
On the ice against each other (Marchenko's side)
14:22 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Marchenko's side
- Shot attempts
- 12–12
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.6–0.8
- 44.7%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Marchenko | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | CBJ 1–2 WSH | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-12-07 | CBJ 0–2 WSH | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 1A 6S |
| 2025-10-24 | CBJ 1–5 WSH | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-04-13 | CBJ 4–1 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-04-12 | CBJ 7–0 WSH | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-12-12 | CBJ 1–2 WSH | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-11-02 | CBJ 2–7 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-12-21 | CBJ 2–3 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-11-18 | CBJ 3–4 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-11-04 | CBJ 1–2 WSH | 0G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2023-03-21 | CBJ 7–6 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2023-01-08 | CBJ 0–1 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Kirill Marchenko
3games (1 left)
1.8proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 12th-most FP to RWLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 14th-most FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.8 ptsvs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Tom Wilson
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ CAROpp allows 11th-most FP to RWLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.3 ptsOpp allows the most FP to RWSchedule edge −13.3 win%vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Kirill Marchenko or Tom Wilson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Kirill Marchenko's 1.92. Marchenko had 67 points in 76 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Kirill Marchenko or Tom Wilson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tom Wilson leads in 18 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Marchenko and Wilson done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Marchenko's team went 3–9. Marchenko had 2 points (0 goals) and Wilson had 7 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →