Who to start · 2025-26
Leo Carlsson vs Mitch Marner
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mitch Marner's 1.88.
Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Marner had 80 in 81 games.
This week Carlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Marner has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Marner for 2.3 ESPN points to Carlsson's 1.6.
Mitch Marner has the better number in 21 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Carlsson's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 197, Ascension score 59, Top skating speed 22.5.
Marner's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.024, On-ice PDO 1019, High-danger chances 59.0%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 5 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Leo Carlsson
2.12
fantasy points per game
Mitch Marner
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Leo Carlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlsson | Marner |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.90 | 0.52 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlsson vs Marner
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlsson 5G 5A, 26 SOG · Marner 6G 10A, 29 SOG
Carlsson's offensive zone 1–1 · neutral 0–0 · Carlsson's defensive zone 0–0 (2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Carlsson's side)
33:02 at 5-on-5 over 9 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Carlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 28–20
- 58.3%
- Expected goals
- 1.4–1.5
- 48.2%
- Goals
- 2–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlsson | Marner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | ANA 4–3 VGK | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2026-05-14 · PO | ANA 1–5 VGK | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2026-05-12 · PO | ANA 2–3 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-05-10 · PO | ANA 4–3 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 3A 2S |
| 2026-05-08 · PO | ANA 2–6 VGK | 0G 1A 3S | 3G 1A 5S |
| 2026-05-06 · PO | ANA 3–1 VGK | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-05-04 · PO | ANA 1–3 VGK | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2025-11-22 | ANA 4–3 VGK | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-08 | ANA 4–3 VGK | 2G 1A 5S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-03-30 | ANA 2–3 TOR | 1G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-12-12 | ANA 2–3 TOR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-02-17 | ANA 2–9 TOR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 2S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
Mitch Marner
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 4th-most FP to RWLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.3 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Leo Carlsson or Mitch Marner in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mitch Marner's 1.88. Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Marner had 80 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Leo Carlsson or Mitch Marner?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mitch Marner leads in 21 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlsson and Marner done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Carlsson's team went 5–7. Carlsson had 10 points (5 goals) and Marner had 16 (6 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Carlsson or Marner?
- Against each other, Carlsson has won 1 and Marner 1 of their 2 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →