Who to start · 2025-26
Mitch Marner vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mitch Marner's 1.88.
Marner had 80 points in 81 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week Marner has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Marner for 2.3 ESPN points to Aho's 2.2.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 19 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Marner's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.024, Goals above expected +2.1, On-ice PDO 1019.
Aho's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.39, 20+ mph bursts 128, Faceoff win % 50.5%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 5 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mitch Marner
1.88
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Sebastian Aho has the edge.
| Points per game from | Marner | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Marner vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Marner 10G 21A, 58 SOG · Aho 7G 12A, 64 SOG
Marner blocked 1 of Aho's shots; Aho blocked 2 of Marner's.
On the ice against each other (Marner's side)
31:43 at 5-on-5 over 8 games, 2025-26, from Marner's side
- Shot attempts
- 32–29
- 52.5%
- Expected goals
- 2.1–0.5
- 79.7%
- Goals
- 3–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Marner | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 · PO | VGK 0–3 CAR | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-06-11 · PO | VGK 2–4 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2026-06-09 · PO | VGK 3–5 CAR | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2026-06-06 · PO | VGK 5–4 CAR | 3G 1A 10S | 0G 2A 0S |
| 2026-06-04 · PO | VGK 3–4 CAR | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2026-06-02 · PO | VGK 5–4 CAR | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-28 | VGK 6–3 CAR | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-10-20 | VGK 4–1 CAR | 0G 2A 0S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-04-13 | TOR 4–1 CAR | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2025-02-22 | TOR 6–3 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-01-09 | TOR 3–6 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2023-12-30 | TOR 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 2A 4S |
Latest 12 of 26 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mitch Marner
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 4th-most FP to RWLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.3 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mitch Marner or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mitch Marner's 1.88. Marner had 80 points in 81 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mitch Marner or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 19 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Marner and Aho done against each other?
- In 26 games against each other in our data, Marner's team went 14–12. Marner had 31 points (10 goals) and Aho had 19 (7 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →