Who to start · 2025-26
Leo Carlsson vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week Carlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Buchnevich has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Carlsson for 1.6 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
Leo Carlsson has the better number in 30 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Carlsson's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 197, Fenwick 56.3%, Ascension score 59.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.31, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.022, On-ice PDO 1000.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Leo Carlsson
2.12
fantasy points per game
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Leo Carlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlsson | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.90 | 0.46 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.57 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlsson vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlsson 3G 2A, 19 SOG · Buchnevich 4G 5A, 19 SOG
Carlsson's offensive zone 2–1 · neutral 0–0 · Carlsson's defensive zone 0–0 (2023-24 to 2025-26)
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlsson | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | ANA 0–4 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-12-01 | ANA 4–1 STL | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-03-16 | ANA 2–7 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-07 | ANA 3–4 STL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-09 | ANA 2–6 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2024-04-07 | ANA 5–6 STL | 2G 0A 5S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-03-17 | ANA 2–4 STL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 3A 3S |
| 2023-11-19 | ANA 1–3 STL | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 4S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALOpp allows 11th-most FP to LWLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −16.8 win%vs Mackenzie Blackwood (.903)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Leo Carlsson or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Leo Carlsson or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Leo Carlsson leads in 30 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlsson and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 8 games against each other in our data, Carlsson's team went 1–7. Carlsson had 5 points (3 goals) and Buchnevich had 9 (4 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Carlsson or Buchnevich?
- Against each other, Carlsson has won 2 and Buchnevich 1 of their 3 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →