Who to start · 2025-26
Leo Carlsson vs Tom Wilson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.02.
Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games.
This week Carlsson has 2 games left with 1 tough matchup; Wilson has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. We project Wilson for 3.8 ESPN points to Carlsson's 3.2.
Leo Carlsson has the better number in 19 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Net penalties drawn /60 +0.29, Offensive-zone start % 65.8%, Faceoffs won 433.
Wilson's biggest edges: Hits 179, Forecheck xG /60 0.51, On-ice PDO 1017.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Leo Carlsson
2.02
fantasy points per game
Tom Wilson
2.20
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlsson | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.02 | 0.25 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlsson vs Wilson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlsson 0G 2A, 12 SOG · Wilson 5G 2A, 12 SOG
Carlsson's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · Carlsson's defensive zone 1–0 (2023-24)
Carlsson blocked 0 of Wilson's shots; Wilson blocked 1 of Carlsson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlsson's side)
8:19 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Carlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 9–7
- 56.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.4
- 37.6%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlsson | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | ANA 4–3 WSH | 0G 0A 7S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-11 | ANA 4–7 WSH | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2025-01-14 | ANA 0–3 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-01-16 | ANA 0–2 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2023-11-30 | ANA 4–5 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 3G 0A 7S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Leo Carlsson
2games
3.2proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGK1.6 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to Cvs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 ptsOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
Tom Wilson
2games
3.8proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ CAR1.5 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.3 ptsOpp allows the most FP to RWSchedule edge −13.3 win%Likely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Leo Carlsson or Tom Wilson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.02. Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Leo Carlsson or Tom Wilson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Leo Carlsson leads in 19 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlsson and Wilson done against each other?
- In 5 games against each other in our data, Carlsson's team went 1–4. Carlsson had 2 points (0 goals) and Wilson had 7 (5 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Carlsson or Wilson?
- Against each other, Carlsson has won 1 and Wilson 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →