Who to start · 2025-26
Leo Carlsson vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88.
Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Carlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Hertl for 2.0 ESPN points to Carlsson's 1.6.
Leo Carlsson has the better number in 19 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Goals above expected +1.4, Plus/minus +4, 20+ mph bursts 197.
Hertl's biggest edges: Draw Equity /100 +0.096, Hits 114, Faceoff win % 57.8%.
Head to head on the dot, Hertl leads Carlsson 21–11.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Leo Carlsson
2.12
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Leo Carlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlsson | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.90 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.57 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlsson vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlsson 4G 8A, 30 SOG · Hertl 8G 5A, 43 SOG
Carlsson's offensive zone 2–8 · neutral 5–6 · Carlsson's defensive zone 4–7 (2023-24 to 2026-27)
Carlsson blocked 0 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 1 of Carlsson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlsson's side)
20:56 at 5-on-5 over 7 games, 2025-26, from Carlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 20–13
- 60.6%
- Expected goals
- 1.2–0.9
- 56.4%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlsson | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | ANA 4–3 VGK | 1G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2026-05-14 · PO | ANA 1–5 VGK | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2026-05-12 · PO | ANA 2–3 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2026-05-10 · PO | ANA 4–3 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2026-05-08 · PO | ANA 2–6 VGK | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-05-06 · PO | ANA 3–1 VGK | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-05-04 · PO | ANA 1–3 VGK | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-22 | ANA 4–3 VGK | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-08 | ANA 4–3 VGK | 2G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 8S |
| 2024-12-23 | ANA 1–3 VGK | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2024-11-13 | ANA 2–3 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2024-10-13 | ANA 1–3 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 15 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Leo Carlsson or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88. Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Leo Carlsson or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Leo Carlsson leads in 19 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlsson and Hertl done against each other?
- In 15 games against each other in our data, Carlsson's team went 7–8. Carlsson had 12 points (4 goals) and Hertl had 13 (8 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Carlsson or Hertl?
- Against each other, Carlsson has won 11 and Hertl 21 of their 32 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →