Who to start · 2025-26
Mathew Barzal vs Nikolaj Ehlers
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mathew Barzal projects to 1.82 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nikolaj Ehlers's 1.65.
Barzal had 72 points in 81 games; Ehlers had 71 in 82 games.
This week Barzal has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Ehlers has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Ehlers for 1.8 ESPN points to Barzal's 1.4.
Nikolaj Ehlers has the better number in 18 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Barzal's biggest edges: Penalty minutes 61, Blocked shots 50, On-ice PDO 1006.
Ehlers's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.78, Hardest shot 93.6, Goals above expected +3.6.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mathew Barzal
1.82
fantasy points per game
Nikolaj Ehlers
1.78
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Mathew Barzal has the edge.
| Points per game from | Barzal | Ehlers |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.47 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.31 | 0.15 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Barzal vs Ehlers
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Barzal 7G 7A, 34 SOG · Ehlers 3G 3A, 42 SOG
On the ice against each other (Barzal's side)
4:56 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Barzal's side
- Shot attempts
- 5–8
- 38.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.3
- 60.6%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Barzal | Ehlers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | NYI 1–2 CAR | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2026-04-04 | NYI 3–4 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-03-23 | NYI 6–3 WPG | 1G 2A 2S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2024-01-16 | NYI 2–4 WPG | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-03-11 | NYI 5–2 WPG | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2021-11-06 | NYI 2–0 WPG | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-10-17 | NYI 3–1 WPG | 2G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2019-10-06 | NYI 4–1 WPG | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2019-03-28 | NYI 5–4 WPG | 1G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2018-12-04 | NYI 1–3 WPG | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2017-12-29 | NYI 2–4 WPG | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2017-12-23 | NYI 5–2 WPG | 3G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 3S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mathew Barzal
2games (1 left)
1.4proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ TOROpp allows 7th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Anthony Stolarz (.893)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs NJD1.4 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jake Allen (.904)
Nikolaj Ehlers
3games (1 left)
1.8proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B1.8 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −12.8 win%Likely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mathew Barzal or Nikolaj Ehlers in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mathew Barzal projects to 1.82 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nikolaj Ehlers's 1.65. Barzal had 72 points in 81 games; Ehlers had 71 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mathew Barzal or Nikolaj Ehlers?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nikolaj Ehlers leads in 18 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Barzal and Ehlers done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Barzal's team went 7–5. Barzal had 14 points (7 goals) and Ehlers had 6 (3 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →