Who to start · 2025-26
Mike Matheson vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mike Matheson projects to 1.80 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Matheson had 37 points in 78 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Matheson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Toffoli for 1.5 ESPN points to Matheson's 1.3.
Tyler Toffoli has the better number in 18 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Matheson's biggest edges: Top skating speed 22.8, Faceoffs won 0, 20+ mph bursts 90.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 45.2%, Offensive-zone start % 53.7%, Transition attempts /60 1.64.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mike Matheson
1.80
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Mike Matheson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Matheson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.17 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.96 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Matheson vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Matheson 2G 7A, 36 SOG · Toffoli 6G 6A, 44 SOG
Matheson blocked 3 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 1 of Matheson's.
On the ice against each other (Matheson's side)
4:21 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Matheson's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–2
- 83.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.1
- 71.1%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Matheson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | MTL 2–4 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-03-03 | MTL 5–7 SJS | 0G 3A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-02-27 | MTL 4–3 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-02-04 | MTL 4–3 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2024-02-24 | MTL 3–4 NJD | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2024-01-17 | MTL 3–2 NJD | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-10-24 | MTL 2–5 NJD | 1G 0A 5S | 3G 0A 6S |
| 2022-12-01 | MTL 2–1 CGY | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 7S |
| 2021-11-27 | PIT 3–6 MTL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 2A 2S |
| 2021-11-18 | PIT 6–0 MTL | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2020-01-16 | FLA 4–3 LAK | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-03-16 | FLA 4–3 LAK | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
Latest 12 of 14 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mike Matheson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ TOROpp allows 14th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PIT1.3 ptsOpp allows the fewest FP to Dvs Arturs Silovs (.888)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mike Matheson or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mike Matheson projects to 1.80 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Matheson had 37 points in 78 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mike Matheson or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tyler Toffoli leads in 18 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Matheson and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 14 games against each other in our data, Matheson's team went 7–7. Matheson had 9 points (2 goals) and Toffoli had 12 (6 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →