Who to start · 2025-26
Nikolaj Ehlers vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nikolaj Ehlers projects to 1.65 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Ehlers had 71 points in 82 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Ehlers has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Ehlers for 1.8 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Nikolaj Ehlers has the better number in 28 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Ehlers's biggest edges: Top skating speed 23.1, Fenwick 61.3%, 20+ mph bursts 182.
Toffoli's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1006, Hits 48, Blocked shots 31.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 6 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nikolaj Ehlers
1.65
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nikolaj Ehlers has the edge.
| Points per game from | Ehlers | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.56 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Ehlers vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Ehlers 9G 14A, 67 SOG · Toffoli 9G 8A, 67 SOG
Ehlers blocked 1 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 2 of Ehlers's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (Ehlers's side)
8:42 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Ehlers's side
- Shot attempts
- 16–5
- 76.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.7–0.3
- 73.9%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Ehlers | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | CAR 1–4 SJS | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-10-14 | CAR 5–1 SJS | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-02-24 | WPG 2–1 SJS | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-10-18 | WPG 8–3 SJS | 2G 1A 5S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2023-11-14 | WPG 6–3 NJD | 2G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-04-05 | WPG 1–3 CGY | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-04-29 | WPG 3–1 CGY | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2021-06-07 · PO | WPG 2–3 MTL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2021-06-06 · PO | WPG 1–5 MTL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2021-06-04 · PO | WPG 0–1 MTL | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2021-06-02 · PO | WPG 3–5 MTL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2021-04-10 | WPG 5–0 MTL | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 27 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Nikolaj Ehlers
3games (1 left)
1.8proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B1.8 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nikolaj Ehlers or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nikolaj Ehlers projects to 1.65 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Ehlers had 71 points in 82 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nikolaj Ehlers or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nikolaj Ehlers leads in 28 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Ehlers and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 27 games against each other in our data, Ehlers's team went 15–12. Ehlers had 23 points (9 goals) and Toffoli had 17 (9 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →