Who to start · 2025-26
Noah Cates vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Noah Cates projects to 1.33 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Cates had 47 points in 82 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week Cates has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Buchnevich has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Cates for 1.5 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
Noah Cates has the better number in 20 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Cates's biggest edges: Plus/minus +26, Hits 102, Top skating speed 22.4.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Hardest shot 88.9, Ascension score 44, Corsi 49.7%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Noah Cates
1.33
fantasy points per game
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Noah Cates has the edge.
| Points per game from | Cates | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Cates vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Cates 1G 1A, 9 SOG · Buchnevich 0G 0A, 14 SOG
Cates blocked 1 of Buchnevich's shots; Buchnevich blocked 0 of Cates's.
On the ice against each other (Cates's side)
3:41 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Cates's side
- Shot attempts
- 0–6
- 0.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.0–0.3
- 0.0%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Cates | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | PHI 3–2 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-14 | PHI 6–5 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-31 | PHI 2–1 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-03-04 | PHI 1–2 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2024-01-15 | PHI 4–2 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2022-11-08 | PHI 5–1 STL | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PITOpp allows the fewest FP to LWLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to LWSchedule edge +9.0 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALOpp allows 11th-most FP to LWLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −16.8 win%vs Mackenzie Blackwood (.903)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Noah Cates or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Noah Cates projects to 1.33 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Cates had 47 points in 82 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Noah Cates or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Noah Cates leads in 20 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Cates and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 6 games against each other in our data, Cates's team went 5–1. Cates had 2 points (1 goals) and Buchnevich had 0 (0 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →