Who to start · 2025-26
Noah Cates vs Tom Wilson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Cates had 47 points in 82 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games.
This week Cates has 1 game left; Wilson has 1 left. We project Wilson for 2.2 ESPN points to Cates's 1.5.
Tom Wilson has the better number in 27 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Cates's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, Faceoffs won 467, Offensive-zone start % 58.9%.
Wilson's biggest edges: Hardest shot 91.2, 20+ mph bursts 162, Fenwick 55.8%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Noah Cates
1.33
fantasy points per game
Tom Wilson
2.24
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Cates | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.39 | 0.78 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Cates vs Wilson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Cates 0G 3A, 10 SOG · Wilson 2G 3A, 16 SOG
Cates's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 0–0 · Cates's defensive zone 1–0 (2024-25 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Cates's side)
2:43 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Cates's side
- Shot attempts
- 2–3
- 40.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.2
- 52.0%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Cates | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | PHI 4–6 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 2G 0A 3S |
| 2026-03-11 | PHI 4–1 WSH | 0G 2A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-02-03 | PHI 4–2 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-20 | PHI 2–3 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-02-06 | PHI 3–4 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-10-23 | PHI 3–6 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-10-22 | PHI 1–4 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-16 | PHI 1–2 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-03-01 | PHI 2–5 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2023-01-14 | PHI 3–1 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-01-11 | PHI 5–3 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-04-12 | PHI 2–9 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PIT
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2B
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 pts
Tom Wilson
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Fri, Oct 2 @ CAR
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.2 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Noah Cates or Tom Wilson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Cates had 47 points in 82 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Noah Cates or Tom Wilson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tom Wilson leads in 27 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Cates and Wilson done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Cates's team went 4–8. Cates had 3 points (0 goals) and Wilson had 5 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Cates or Wilson?
- Against each other, Cates has won 2 and Wilson 0 of their 2 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →