Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

Pavel Buchnevich vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Pavel BuchnevichPavel BuchnevichBlues · Left wingvsRyan Nugent-HopkinsRyan Nugent-HopkinsOilers · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins projects to 1.70 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.

Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; Nugent-Hopkins had 56 in 72 games.

This week Buchnevich has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Nugent-Hopkins has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Buchnevich for 1.5 ESPN points to Nugent-Hopkins's 1.1.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has the better number in 20 of the 35 stats both are ranked on.

Buchnevich's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.022, On-ice PDO 1000, Blocked shots 40.

Nugent-Hopkins's biggest edges: Top skating speed 22.8, Goals above expected +2.1, Transition attempts /60 1.26.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Pavel Buchnevich

1.39

fantasy points per game

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

1.70

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromBuchnevichNugent-Hopkins
Goals (+2)0.490.56
Assists (+1)0.350.50
Power-play points (+0.5)0.090.20
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.01
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.180.18
Hits (+0.1)0.040.03
Blocks (+0.5)0.250.22

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Buchnevich vs Nugent-Hopkins

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

BuchnevichNugent-Hopkins
6Team record in 16 meetings10
12Points in those games17

Buchnevich 5G 7A, 31 SOG · Nugent-Hopkins 6G 11A, 42 SOG

1Faceoffs against each other3

Buchnevich's offensive zone 1–1 · neutral 0–0 · Buchnevich's defensive zone 0–2 (2017-18 to 2025-26)

On the ice against each other (Buchnevich's side)

12:09 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Buchnevich's side

Shot attempts
15–9
62.5%
Expected goals
0.5–0.9
39.0%
Goals
0–1

Games against each other

Games between Pavel Buchnevich and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
DateScoreBuchnevichNugent-Hopkins
2026-01-18STL 0–5 EDM0G 0A 1S1G 0A 3S
2025-11-03STL 3–2 EDM0G 0A 0S0G 2A 0S
2025-02-04STL 2–3 EDM0G 1A 1S0G 0A 1S
2024-12-07STL 2–4 EDM0G 1A 4S0G 0A 0S
2024-04-01STL 3–2 EDM0G 0A 0S0G 0A 4S
2024-02-28STL 2–3 EDM1G 0A 3S0G 2A 2S
2024-02-15STL 6–3 EDM1G 1A 3S1G 0A 2S
2022-12-15STL 4–3 EDM0G 1A 0S0G 1A 3S
2022-04-01STL 5–6 EDM2G 0A 6S0G 0A 0S
2021-11-14STL 4–5 EDM0G 2A 2S1G 0A 8S
2019-12-31NYR 5–7 EDM0G 0A 1S1G 3A 3S
2019-10-12NYR 1–4 EDM0G 0A 2S0G 1A 1S

Latest 12 of 16 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

BuchnevichNugent-Hopkins

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Pavel Buchnevich

2games (1 left)

1.5proj. ESPN pts

  • Fri, Oct 2 @ DAL
    Likely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
  • Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 pts
    Opp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −16.8 win%Likely vs Mackenzie Blackwood (.903)

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

3games (1 left)

1.1proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs VAN
    Opp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
  • Thu, Oct 1 @ VAN
    Opp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA1.1 pts
    Opp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Pavel Buchnevich or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins projects to 1.70 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; Nugent-Hopkins had 56 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Pavel Buchnevich or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
On 2025-26 numbers, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins leads in 20 of 35 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Buchnevich and Nugent-Hopkins done against each other?
In 16 games against each other in our data, Buchnevich's team went 6–10. Buchnevich had 12 points (5 goals) and Nugent-Hopkins had 17 (6 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Buchnevich or Nugent-Hopkins?
Against each other, Buchnevich has won 1 and Nugent-Hopkins 3 of their 4 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →