Who to start · 2025-26
Pavel Buchnevich vs Ryan O'Reilly
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan O'Reilly projects to 1.90 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games.
This week Buchnevich has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; O'Reilly has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project O'Reilly for 2.0 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
Ryan O'Reilly has the better number in 29 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Hardest shot 88.9, Offensive-zone start % 53.1%, Hits 30.
O'Reilly's biggest edges: Faceoff win % 55.1%, Draw Equity /100 +0.056, Plus/minus +8.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Ryan O'Reilly
1.90
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Ryan O'Reilly has the edge.
| Points per game from | Buchnevich | O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.32 | 0.57 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Buchnevich vs O'Reilly
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Buchnevich 7G 8A, 34 SOG · O'Reilly 6G 10A, 37 SOG
Buchnevich's offensive zone 0–2 · neutral 2–1 · Buchnevich's defensive zone 1–0 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Buchnevich blocked 1 of O'Reilly's shots; O'Reilly blocked 2 of Buchnevich's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (Buchnevich's side)
27:54 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Buchnevich's side
- Shot attempts
- 28–31
- 47.5%
- Expected goals
- 2.7–2.3
- 54.4%
- Goals
- 3–5
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Buchnevich | O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | STL 5–6 NSH | 2G 1A 6S | 2G 0A 2S |
| 2025-12-27 | STL 3–2 NSH | 2G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-12-15 | STL 2–5 NSH | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2025-12-11 | STL 2–7 NSH | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-18 | STL 4–1 NSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-12-27 | STL 7–4 NSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-04-04 | STL 3–6 NSH | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2024-02-17 | STL 2–5 NSH | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2023-11-24 | STL 3–8 NSH | 1G 1A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2020-03-03 | NYR 1–3 STL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2020-01-11 | NYR 2–5 STL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2019-03-29 | NYR 4–2 STL | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 6S |
Latest 12 of 16 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALOpp allows 11th-most FP to LW
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −12.8 win%
Ryan O'Reilly
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs MINOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to C
- Sat, Oct 3 vs DAL2.0 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Pavel Buchnevich or Ryan O'Reilly in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan O'Reilly projects to 1.90 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Pavel Buchnevich or Ryan O'Reilly?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Ryan O'Reilly leads in 29 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Buchnevich and O'Reilly done against each other?
- In 16 games against each other in our data, Buchnevich's team went 8–8. Buchnevich had 15 points (7 goals) and O'Reilly had 16 (6 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Buchnevich or O'Reilly?
- Against each other, Buchnevich has won 3 and O'Reilly 3 of their 6 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →