Who to start · 2025-26
Pavel Buchnevich vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tyler Toffoli projects to 1.35 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Buchnevich has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Buchnevich for 1.5 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Pavel Buchnevich has the better number in 18 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Penalty minutes 26, Forecheck xG /60 0.31, Faceoffs won 98.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.64, Luck Meter +14, Offensive-zone time 45.2%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tyler Toffoli has the edge.
| Points per game from | Buchnevich | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Buchnevich vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Buchnevich 4G 5A, 25 SOG · Toffoli 4G 8A, 44 SOG
On the ice against each other (Buchnevich's side)
14:56 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Buchnevich's side
- Shot attempts
- 9–11
- 45.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.6
- 31.8%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Buchnevich | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | STL 4–5 SJS | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 2A 3S |
| 2026-03-26 | STL 2–1 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-03-06 | STL 3–2 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-12-12 | STL 3–4 SJS | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-11-21 | STL 3–2 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-10 | STL 5–4 SJS | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2023-11-03 | STL 4–1 NJD | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-01-12 | STL 1–4 CGY | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 2A 3S |
| 2023-01-10 | STL 4–3 CGY | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-12-16 | STL 5–2 CGY | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2022-04-02 | STL 6–4 CGY | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2020-02-09 | NYR 4–1 LAK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 7S |
Latest 12 of 17 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALOpp allows 11th-most FP to LW
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −12.8 win%
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to C
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to C
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Pavel Buchnevich or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tyler Toffoli projects to 1.35 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Pavel Buchnevich or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Pavel Buchnevich leads in 18 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Buchnevich and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 17 games against each other in our data, Buchnevich's team went 10–7. Buchnevich had 9 points (4 goals) and Toffoli had 12 (4 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →