Who to start · 2025-26
Pavel Buchnevich vs Will Smith
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Will Smith projects to 1.94 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; Smith had 59 in 69 games.
This week Buchnevich has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Smith has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Smith for 1.9 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
Will Smith has the better number in 21 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Blocked shots 40, High-danger chances 50.1%, Expected goals 52.5%.
Smith's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 2.05, Ascension score 64, Luck Meter +40.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Will Smith
1.94
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Will Smith has the edge.
| Points per game from | Buchnevich | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.46 | 0.90 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.32 | 0.54 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.23 | 0.08 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Buchnevich vs Smith
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2024-25 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Buchnevich 2G 0A, 7 SOG · Smith 0G 2A, 6 SOG
Buchnevich's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · Buchnevich's defensive zone 3–0 (2024-25)
On the ice against each other (Buchnevich's side)
12:02 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Buchnevich's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–15
- 31.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.7
- 42.0%
- Goals
- 0–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Buchnevich | Smith |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | STL 4–5 SJS | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 2A 3S |
| 2026-03-26 | STL 2–1 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-03-06 | STL 3–2 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-10 | STL 5–4 SJS | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALOpp allows 11th-most FP to LWLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −13.4 win%Likely vs Scott Wedgewood (.921)
Will Smith
2games (1 left)
1.9proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.9 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Pavel Buchnevich or Will Smith in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Will Smith projects to 1.94 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; Smith had 59 in 69 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Pavel Buchnevich or Will Smith?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Will Smith leads in 21 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Buchnevich and Smith done against each other?
- In 4 games against each other in our data, Buchnevich's team went 3–1. Buchnevich had 2 points (2 goals) and Smith had 2 (0 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Buchnevich or Smith?
- Against each other, Buchnevich has won 3 and Smith 0 of their 3 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →