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Who to start · 2025-26

Pavel Dorofeyev vs Tom Wilson

Pavel DorofeyevPavel DorofeyevRangers · Right wingvsTom WilsonTom WilsonCapitals · Right wing

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Dorofeyev's 1.90.

Dorofeyev had 64 points in 82 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games.

This week Dorofeyev has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Wilson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Wilson for 2.3 ESPN points to Dorofeyev's 1.4.

Pavel Dorofeyev has the better number in 19 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Dorofeyev's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.034, Offensive-zone start % 63.2%, Transition attempts /60 1.65.

Wilson's biggest edges: Hits 179, Forecheck xG /60 0.51, Penalty minutes 117.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 12 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Pavel Dorofeyev

1.90

fantasy points per game

Tom Wilson

2.24

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromDorofeyevWilson
Goals (+2)0.860.78
Assists (+1)0.330.48
Power-play points (+0.5)0.180.08
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.01
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.300.20
Hits (+0.1)0.030.25
Blocks (+0.5)0.200.44

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Dorofeyev vs Wilson

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

DorofeyevWilson
0Team record in 5 meetings5
2Points in those games1

Dorofeyev 0G 2A, 11 SOG · Wilson 1G 0A, 6 SOG

On the ice against each other (Dorofeyev's side)

5:03 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Dorofeyev's side

Shot attempts
5–2
71.4%
Expected goals
0.0–0.1
40.5%
Goals
0–1

Games against each other

Games between Pavel Dorofeyev and Tom Wilson
DateScoreDorofeyevWilson
2026-03-28VGK 4–5 WSH0G 1A 2S0G 0A 1S
2026-02-27VGK 2–3 WSH0G 1A 1S0G 0A 1S
2024-11-17VGK 2–5 WSH0G 0A 5S0G 0A 1S
2024-10-15VGK 2–4 WSH0G 0A 2S1G 0A 1S
2023-11-14VGK 0–3 WSH0G 0A 1S0G 0A 2S

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

DorofeyevWilson

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Pavel Dorofeyev

4games (1 left)

1.4proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 @ BOS
    Opp allows 5th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
  • Thu, Oct 1 vs TBL
    Opp allows the most FP to RWLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
  • Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2B
    Opp allows 8th-most FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
  • Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.4 pts
    Opp allows 2nd-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)

Tom Wilson

2games (1 left)

2.3proj. ESPN pts

  • Fri, Oct 2 @ CAR
    Opp allows 11th-most FP to RWLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
  • Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.3 pts
    Opp allows the most FP to RWSchedule edge −13.3 win%vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Pavel Dorofeyev or Tom Wilson in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Dorofeyev's 1.90. Dorofeyev had 64 points in 82 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Pavel Dorofeyev or Tom Wilson?
On 2025-26 numbers, Pavel Dorofeyev leads in 19 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Dorofeyev and Wilson done against each other?
In 5 games against each other in our data, Dorofeyev's team went 0–5. Dorofeyev had 2 points (0 goals) and Wilson had 1 (1 goals).

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →