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Who to start · 2025-26

Ryan O'Reilly vs Tomas Hertl

Ryan O'ReillyRyan O'ReillyPredators · CentrevsTomas HertlTomas HertlGolden Knights · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan O'Reilly projects to 1.90 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88.

O'Reilly had 74 points in 81 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.

This week O'Reilly has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project O'Reilly for 2.0 ESPN points to Hertl's 2.0.

Tomas Hertl has the better number in 20 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.

O'Reilly's biggest edges: Luck Meter +52, On-ice PDO 1023, Plus/minus +8.

Hertl's biggest edges: Hits 114, Ascension score 61, Offensive-zone start % 61.8%.

Head to head on the dot, O'Reilly leads Hertl 91–91.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Ryan O'Reilly

1.90

fantasy points per game

Tomas Hertl

1.88

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Ryan O'Reilly has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromO'ReillyHertl
Goals (+2)0.580.63
Assists (+1)0.570.37
Power-play points (+0.5)0.120.17
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.020.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.200.27
Hits (+0.1)0.030.14
Blocks (+0.5)0.380.30

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: O'Reilly vs Hertl

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

O'ReillyHertl
16Team record in 25 meetings9
17Points in those games17

O'Reilly 7G 10A, 42 SOG · Hertl 5G 12A, 47 SOG

91Faceoffs against each other91

O'Reilly's offensive zone 30–27 · neutral 32–30 · O'Reilly's defensive zone 29–34 (2017-18 to 2025-26)

2Shots blocked by the other1

O'Reilly blocked 2 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 1 of O'Reilly's.

On the ice against each other (O'Reilly's side)

4:51 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from O'Reilly's side

Shot attempts
3–3
50.0%
Expected goals
0.3–0.0
93.4%
Goals
0–0

Games against each other

Games between Ryan O'Reilly and Tomas Hertl
DateScoreO'ReillyHertl
2026-03-21NSH 4–1 VGK1G 1A 5S0G 0A 3S
2026-01-17NSH 2–7 VGK0G 1A 0S0G 1A 1S
2025-12-31NSH 4–2 VGK0G 0A 1S0G 1A 2S
2025-04-12NSH 3–5 VGK0G 0A 2S0G 0A 4S
2025-01-14NSH 5–3 VGK1G 0A 1S0G 2A 1S
2023-10-21NSH 5–1 SJS0G 0A 1S1G 0A 5S
2022-11-10STL 5–3 SJS0G 0A 0S1G 0A 2S
2022-04-21STL 3–1 SJS0G 0A 1S0G 0A 1S
2021-11-18STL 4–1 SJS0G 1A 5S0G 0A 4S
2021-03-20STL 5–2 SJS1G 3A 2S1G 0A 1S
2021-03-19STL 2–1 SJS0G 0A 1S0G 1A 3S
2021-02-20STL 4–5 SJS1G 1A 2S0G 1A 3S

Latest 12 of 25 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

O'ReillyHertl

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Ryan O'Reilly

2games (1 left)

2.0proj. ESPN pts

  • Thu, Oct 1 vs MIN
    Opp allows 11th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs DAL2.0 pts
    Opp allows 3rd-most FP to CSchedule edge +13.0 win%Likely vs Casey DeSmith (.907)

Tomas Hertl

3games (1 left)

2.0proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs CHI
    Opp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
  • Fri, Oct 2 vs ANA
    Opp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
  • Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 pts
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Ryan O'Reilly or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan O'Reilly projects to 1.90 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88. O'Reilly had 74 points in 81 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Ryan O'Reilly or Tomas Hertl?
On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 20 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have O'Reilly and Hertl done against each other?
In 25 games against each other in our data, O'Reilly's team went 16–9. O'Reilly had 17 points (7 goals) and Hertl had 17 (5 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, O'Reilly or Hertl?
Against each other, O'Reilly has won 91 and Hertl 91 of their 182 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →