Who to start · 2025-26
Ryan O'Reilly vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan O'Reilly projects to 1.90 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
O'Reilly had 74 points in 81 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week O'Reilly has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project O'Reilly for 2.0 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Ryan O'Reilly has the better number in 25 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
O'Reilly's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 739, Plus/minus +8, Forecheck xG /60 0.33.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.64, Hardest shot 89.2, Hits 48.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Ryan O'Reilly
1.90
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Ryan O'Reilly has the edge.
| Points per game from | O'Reilly | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.57 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.38 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: O'Reilly vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
O'Reilly 6G 2A, 41 SOG · Toffoli 2G 3A, 39 SOG
O'Reilly's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · O'Reilly's defensive zone 0–1 (2018-19)
O'Reilly blocked 2 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 0 of O'Reilly's.
On the ice against each other (O'Reilly's side)
3:45 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from O'Reilly's side
- Shot attempts
- 5–1
- 83.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.0
- 100.0%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | O'Reilly | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | NSH 2–3 SJS | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-04-04 | NSH 6–3 SJS | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-11 | NSH 3–2 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2025-01-23 | NSH 6–5 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-04-09 | NSH 3–4 WPG | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-03-13 | NSH 4–2 WPG | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-02-13 | NSH 2–4 NJD | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-03-02 | TOR 2–1 CGY | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-16 | STL 5–2 CGY | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2022-04-02 | STL 6–4 CGY | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-12-23 | STL 4–1 LAK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2019-10-24 | STL 5–2 LAK | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 17 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Ryan O'Reilly
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs MINOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs DAL2.0 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to CSchedule edge +13.0 win%Likely vs Casey DeSmith (.907)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Ryan O'Reilly or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan O'Reilly projects to 1.90 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. O'Reilly had 74 points in 81 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Ryan O'Reilly or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Ryan O'Reilly leads in 25 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have O'Reilly and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 17 games against each other in our data, O'Reilly's team went 10–7. O'Reilly had 8 points (6 goals) and Toffoli had 5 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, O'Reilly or Toffoli?
- Against each other, O'Reilly has won 0 and Toffoli 1 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →