Who to start · 2025-26
Seth Jarvis vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Seth Jarvis projects to 2.19 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Jarvis had 66 points in 71 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Jarvis has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Jarvis for 2.3 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Seth Jarvis has the better number in 28 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Jarvis's biggest edges: Top skating speed 23.4, Fenwick 59.7%, Corsi 60.4%.
Toffoli's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1006, Luck Meter +14, Hardest shot 89.2.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Seth Jarvis
2.19
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.43
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Seth Jarvis has the edge.
| Points per game from | Jarvis | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.90 | 0.48 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Jarvis vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Jarvis 2G 2A, 11 SOG · Toffoli 2G 2A, 23 SOG
On the ice against each other (Jarvis's side)
9:53 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Jarvis's side
- Shot attempts
- 21–5
- 80.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.3
- 76.2%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Jarvis | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | CAR 1–4 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-10-14 | CAR 5–1 SJS | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-03-20 | CAR 3–1 SJS | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-12-10 | CAR 3–2 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-02-10 | CAR 1–0 NJD | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2024-01-25 | CAR 3–2 NJD | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-26 | CAR 3–2 CGY | 1G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2022-10-22 | CAR 2–3 CGY | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 4S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Seth Jarvis
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 13th-most FP to RWLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.3 ptsOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Seth Jarvis or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Seth Jarvis projects to 2.19 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Jarvis had 66 points in 71 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Seth Jarvis or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Seth Jarvis leads in 28 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Jarvis and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 8 games against each other in our data, Jarvis's team went 6–2. Jarvis had 4 points (2 goals) and Toffoli had 4 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →