Who to start · 2025-26
Steven Stamkos vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Steven Stamkos projects to 2.00 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88.
Stamkos had 66 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Stamkos has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Stamkos for 2.0 ESPN points to Hertl's 2.0.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 20 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Stamkos's biggest edges: Goals above expected +5.9, Forecheck xG /60 0.43, Luck Meter +24.
Hertl's biggest edges: Fenwick 55.5%, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.06, Ascension score 61.
Head to head on the dot, Stamkos leads Hertl 38–37.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Steven Stamkos
2.00
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Steven Stamkos has the edge.
| Points per game from | Stamkos | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.96 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Stamkos vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Stamkos 11G 11A, 34 SOG · Hertl 0G 8A, 32 SOG
Stamkos's offensive zone 9–11 · neutral 14–10 · Stamkos's defensive zone 15–16 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Stamkos blocked 1 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 0 of Stamkos's.
On the ice against each other (Stamkos's side)
5:50 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Stamkos's side
- Shot attempts
- 4–4
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.3
- 54.3%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Stamkos | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | NSH 4–1 VGK | 2G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2026-01-17 | NSH 2–7 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-12-31 | NSH 4–2 VGK | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-04-12 | NSH 3–5 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-01-14 | NSH 5–3 VGK | 2G 1A 3S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2023-10-26 | TBL 6–0 SJS | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2023-02-07 | TBL 3–4 SJS | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 2A 0S |
| 2022-10-29 | TBL 4–3 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 0S |
| 2022-02-01 | TBL 3–2 SJS | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-01-22 | TBL 7–1 SJS | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2019-12-07 | TBL 7–1 SJS | 2G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-01-19 | TBL 6–3 SJS | 2G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 15 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Steven Stamkos
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs MINOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs DAL2.0 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to CSchedule edge +13.0 win%Likely vs Casey DeSmith (.907)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Steven Stamkos or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Steven Stamkos projects to 2.00 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88. Stamkos had 66 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Steven Stamkos or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 20 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Stamkos and Hertl done against each other?
- In 15 games against each other in our data, Stamkos's team went 11–4. Stamkos had 22 points (11 goals) and Hertl had 8 (0 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Stamkos or Hertl?
- Against each other, Stamkos has won 38 and Hertl 37 of their 75 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →