Who to start · 2025-26
Tom Wilson vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Wilson had 62 points in 72 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Wilson has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Wilson for 2.3 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Tom Wilson has the better number in 26 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Wilson's biggest edges: Penalty minutes 117, Forecheck xG /60 0.51, Plus/minus +15.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.05, Transition attempts /60 1.64.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Tom Wilson
2.24
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Wilson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.78 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.44 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Wilson vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Wilson 3G 7A, 24 SOG · Toffoli 5G 7A, 36 SOG
Wilson blocked 0 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 1 of Wilson's.
On the ice against each other (Wilson's side)
2:06 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Wilson's side
- Shot attempts
- 3–0
- 100.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.0
- 100.0%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Wilson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | WSH 7–1 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-15 | WSH 5–1 SJS | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-12-03 | WSH 1–2 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-02-20 | WSH 6–2 NJD | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 6S |
| 2024-01-03 | WSH 3–6 NJD | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-11-10 | WSH 4–2 NJD | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2023-10-25 | WSH 6–4 NJD | 0G 1A 1S | 2G 1A 2S |
| 2022-03-08 | WSH 5–4 CGY | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2022-02-10 | WSH 5–2 MTL | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2021-11-24 | WSH 6–3 MTL | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2020-02-04 | WSH 4–2 LAK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2019-12-04 | WSH 3–1 LAK | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
Latest 12 of 16 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Tom Wilson
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ CAROpp allows 11th-most FP to RWLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.3 ptsOpp allows the most FP to RWSchedule edge −13.3 win%vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.4 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Tom Wilson or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Wilson had 62 points in 72 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Tom Wilson or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tom Wilson leads in 26 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Wilson and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 16 games against each other in our data, Wilson's team went 12–4. Wilson had 10 points (3 goals) and Toffoli had 12 (5 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →