Edgehalla

2026 season · through Week 4

Defense vs RB: Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs

All 32 defenses ranked by fantasy points allowed to RBs, raw and adjusted for the offenses they faced. Most generous right now: NYJ, DAL, MIA.

DvP is noisy this early: weight it lightly. After 4 weeks, most of each rating is last season and the league average, by design.

How reliable is DvP vs RB? Split-half reliability 0.43, year-over-year 0.35 (2023–25). The most persistent position, but a first half still does not predict the second half better than average.

Defense vs position table

Scoring
Defense vs RB
NYJNew York Jets3227.3+6.624.0
DALDallas Cowboys3121.9+2.523.6
MIAMiami Dolphins3029.6+6.123.4
BUFBuffalo Bills2927.9+5.923.3
CINCincinnati Bengals2819.3+0.523.2
SFSan Francisco 49ers2725.6+5.023.1
NYGNew York Giants2621.3−0.123.1
GBGreen Bay Packers2528.9+7.822.7
TENTennessee Titans2420.6+2.922.2
LVLas Vegas Raiders2321.1−3.222.0
WASWashington Commanders2216.1−4.622.0
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles2122.5−0.521.9
BALBaltimore Ravens2019.1−1.621.6
ARIArizona Cardinals1915.2−8.721.6
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers1817.5+1.021.5
NONew Orleans Saints1733.8+4.721.5
CARCarolina Panthers1628.0−3.321.5
LACLos Angeles Chargers1522.9+2.521.4
ATLAtlanta Falcons1416.9−2.221.2
DETDetroit Lions1321.7+1.321.2
INDIndianapolis Colts1224.2+0.521.2
CHIChicago Bears1116.9−1.421.2
DENDenver Broncos1027.0−0.120.9
NENew England Patriots920.9+1.920.9
SEASeattle Seahawks821.2+1.420.8
PITPittsburgh Steelers724.6+1.320.8
KCKansas City Chiefs620.0−1.720.7
JAXJacksonville Jaguars517.8−2.420.6
CLECleveland Browns416.7−4.720.5
HOUHouston Texans317.3−4.920.3
LARLos Angeles Rams215.5−5.520.0
MINMinnesota Vikings114.2−6.919.4

How this works

For every game we sum the fantasy points an offense’s QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs scored. Expected = that offense’s average at the position in its other games this season. A defense’s raw adjustment is its average of actual minus expected. We shrink it with empirical Bayes toward a prior (last season’s adjustment times the year-over-year correlation: QB 0.06, RB 0.34, WR 0, TE 0.2), using variances fitted on complete past seasons, so early-season ranks compress toward the middle on purpose.

Rank 1 is the stingiest defense, 32 the most generous. Half-PPR and standard rows are computed the same way from the same stat lines.

Sources: nflverse weekly player statsUpdated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ET

Frequently asked questions

What is defense vs position (DvP)?

Fantasy points a defense allows to quarterbacks, running backs, receivers or tight ends per game. We also adjust for the offenses it faced: allowing a lot to tight ends because you played two elite ones is not a weakness.

How much should I trust DvP?

Very little early in the season. In 2023–25, splitting each season into odd and even weeks, DvP ranks agreed only weakly (reliability 0.47 for QBs, 0.43 RBs, 0.32 WRs and 0 for TEs), and a defense’s first half did not predict its second half much better than assuming average. We shrink every defense hard toward last season and the league: after four games a defense keeps only 7–18% weight on its own results.

What is the difference between raw and adjusted?

Raw is points allowed per game. “Raw vs exp” subtracts what the same offenses scored at that position in their other games. “Adjusted” is the league average plus that difference after shrinkage, which is what we expect going forward.

Which rank is a good matchup?

Rank 32 allows the most adjusted points (best matchup), rank 1 the fewest. Our waiver reasons only mention DvP at the extremes (8th or better, 25th or worse) and never use it in scores.