2026 season · through Week 4
Defense vs WR: Fantasy Points Allowed to WRs
All 32 defenses ranked by fantasy points allowed to WRs, raw and adjusted for the offenses they faced. Most generous right now: BUF, DET, HOU.
DvP is noisy this early: weight it lightly. After 4 weeks, most of each rating is last season and the league average, by design.
How reliable is DvP vs WR? Split-half reliability 0.32, year-over-year -0.07 (2023–25). Weak; WR alignment (slot vs outside) is not in our data yet.
Defense vs position table
| BUFBuffalo Bills | 32 | 41.0 | +11.6 | 34.6 |
| DETDetroit Lions | 31 | 44.0 | +10.3 | 34.4 |
| HOUHouston Texans | 30 | 44.6 | +9.4 | 34.2 |
| ARIArizona Cardinals | 29 | 38.4 | +9.4 | 34.2 |
| GBGreen Bay Packers | 28 | 32.8 | +8.8 | 34.1 |
| JAXJacksonville Jaguars | 27 | 37.0 | +7.7 | 33.9 |
| TENTennessee Titans | 26 | 34.1 | +5.6 | 33.5 |
| DALDallas Cowboys | 25 | 36.4 | +5.5 | 33.5 |
| CLECleveland Browns | 24 | 37.3 | +4.0 | 33.2 |
| WASWashington Commanders | 23 | 40.3 | +2.7 | 33.0 |
| PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | 22 | 37.0 | +2.5 | 33.0 |
| BALBaltimore Ravens | 21 | 37.9 | +2.3 | 32.9 |
| LARLos Angeles Rams | 20 | 30.3 | +1.9 | 32.9 |
| LACLos Angeles Chargers | 19 | 33.4 | +1.1 | 32.7 |
| INDIndianapolis Colts | 18 | 35.0 | +0.3 | 32.5 |
| SFSan Francisco 49ers | 17 | 27.4 | +0.1 | 32.5 |
| ATLAtlanta Falcons | 16 | 38.4 | −0.0 | 32.5 |
| MINMinnesota Vikings | 15 | 30.1 | −1.4 | 32.2 |
| NYGNew York Giants | 14 | 33.1 | −2.1 | 32.1 |
| NONew Orleans Saints | 13 | 29.5 | −2.3 | 32.1 |
| NENew England Patriots | 12 | 34.9 | −2.3 | 32.1 |
| PITPittsburgh Steelers | 11 | 29.0 | −2.4 | 32.1 |
| LVLas Vegas Raiders | 10 | 26.9 | −3.2 | 31.9 |
| CARCarolina Panthers | 9 | 28.7 | −3.2 | 31.9 |
| CINCincinnati Bengals | 8 | 29.1 | −4.6 | 31.7 |
| KCKansas City Chiefs | 7 | 21.4 | −5.6 | 31.5 |
| DENDenver Broncos | 6 | 28.3 | −8.3 | 31.0 |
| CHIChicago Bears | 5 | 25.4 | −9.2 | 30.8 |
| MIAMiami Dolphins | 4 | 22.2 | −9.2 | 30.8 |
| TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 25.6 | −9.4 | 30.8 |
| NYJNew York Jets | 2 | 29.0 | −9.9 | 30.7 |
| SEASeattle Seahawks | 1 | 21.8 | −10.0 | 30.7 |
How this works
For every game we sum the fantasy points an offense’s QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs scored. Expected = that offense’s average at the position in its other games this season. A defense’s raw adjustment is its average of actual minus expected. We shrink it with empirical Bayes toward a prior (last season’s adjustment times the year-over-year correlation: QB 0.06, RB 0.34, WR 0, TE 0.2), using variances fitted on complete past seasons, so early-season ranks compress toward the middle on purpose.
Rank 1 is the stingiest defense, 32 the most generous. Half-PPR and standard rows are computed the same way from the same stat lines.
Sources: nflverse weekly player statsUpdated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ET
Frequently asked questions
What is defense vs position (DvP)?
Fantasy points a defense allows to quarterbacks, running backs, receivers or tight ends per game. We also adjust for the offenses it faced: allowing a lot to tight ends because you played two elite ones is not a weakness.
How much should I trust DvP?
Very little early in the season. In 2023–25, splitting each season into odd and even weeks, DvP ranks agreed only weakly (reliability 0.47 for QBs, 0.43 RBs, 0.32 WRs and 0 for TEs), and a defense’s first half did not predict its second half much better than assuming average. We shrink every defense hard toward last season and the league: after four games a defense keeps only 7–18% weight on its own results.
What is the difference between raw and adjusted?
Raw is points allowed per game. “Raw vs exp” subtracts what the same offenses scored at that position in their other games. “Adjusted” is the league average plus that difference after shrinkage, which is what we expect going forward.
Which rank is a good matchup?
Rank 32 allows the most adjusted points (best matchup), rank 1 the fewest. Our waiver reasons only mention DvP at the extremes (8th or better, 25th or worse) and never use it in scores.