Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W16 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 9.6 | 2.7 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 16.2 | 14.7 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 15.5 | 22.8 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 10.8 | 9.7 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 14.5 | 8.2 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 15.8 | 6.5 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.6 | 10.1 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 12.3 | 20.2 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.0 | 3.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 16.1 | 4.5 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Willie SneadWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.8 | 3.6 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 11.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 6.1 | 5.1 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.0 | 1.7 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 20.8 | 6.7 | −14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 6.5 | 5.9 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.5 | 5.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 18.8 | 41.1 | +22.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 16.0 | 18.6 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.5 | 13.0 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jamal AgnewWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 7.0 | 3.9 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | 3.5 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Leonard FournetteRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.9 | 19.8 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 18.3 | 10.6 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh ReynoldsWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 7.7 | 2.3 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.1 | 3.3 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.2 | 2.4 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.1 | 1.9 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 11.3 | 10.4 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 25.3 | 36.1 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | 1.8 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.3 | 15.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.2 | 6.7 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.8 | 9.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 21.0 | 9.4 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 15.7 | 28.0 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 14.4 | 10.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.3 | 17.8 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.6 | 8.5 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.5 | 17.3 | +12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.1 | 1.8 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 6.8 | 4.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 6.5 | 6.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse